🔴A “Big Short” Trader’s Perspective on Gold (w/ Danny Moses)

🔴A “Big Short” Trader’s Perspective on Gold (w/ Danny Moses)


You know through the 70s and 80s there was a a gold investment understanding of the way gold should act in certain conditions whether it be terrorist attacks or Crisis in the world in recent years. One of the things we’ve been noting in. Our reports is the negative yielding bonds on the planet Earth The correlation between the negative yielding bonds and gold has been extremely high So in other words when the amount of negative yielding bonds is up around 11 trillion or 12 or maybe even 13 trillion as we saw in mid to late 2016 around the brexit gold is at the high sure and as the amount of negative yielding bonds moves down because say interest rates start to go up as we saw in 2018 last year gold suffers what’s going on here like the traditional metrics of gold so I know you’ve got a strong view on gold But it feels like the traditional metrics have been really kind of taken but taken to the side for sure last couple years I will defer to the gold experts on the macro of it but in its basic form I’ll start with Recently and then move and go backwards and then come back to the present. I think Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies What every view on them is? Sucked a lot of the demand for gold out because one way people view gold is a safe haven, right? It’s a way to you know to your point about how the central banks are acting. What is the value of a dollar? You start to ask those type of philosophical questions. Normally you would go to gold. Well a lot of that was replaced I feel over the last several years and now you’re seeing the destruction of that value over time Would go into gold and so that aspect of it Disappeared so to your point that was like but for 500 billion has come out of crypto. Yeah I don’t know the exact how much was lost when you count the ico is that allowed to exist? But yes, it’s another billions of dollars a billion tomatoes maybe in the world of gold That’s not a lot but on the margin it’s enough to sell fulfill I don’t need to be in gold because it’s not working when it should sure so I think it created this false sense of this Gold never working and I actually think it’s really interesting. And I know as we sit here today gold. It’s had a nice run It’s had nice sell-off year obviously as as the feds go back to Equilibrium, I would say so gold works now to me on the other side of Goldilocks so ironically if it’s Goldilocks Gold’s not gonna do great because if you have a balance of what the Fed is doing But anytime we jump ahead and things heat up again, you know within the within the economy you may say Oh, it could be inflation now because the Fed didn’t do enough Oh historically, I would own gold under an inflationary environment Right or the opposite if the Fed in the Fed starts raising rates to catch it They’re gonna say well things are gonna slow down Dramatically and then the feds gonna end up cutting so I’m gonna buy so you have this period of time where right now this moment People. All right. Gold’s had a nice run I didn’t need to the Fed looks like now that okay They stopped for a month and now they’re gonna come back and raise again Potentially because you pointed that out and your credit conditions there have loosened again That’s what is trading off of now is gold is the complete proxy forget about the global macro for a second now There are countries that have reserves some have some had been forced to sell You know, I don’t know if a turkey or ahem enforces Selvan as well Argentina have been forced you would know better than I would on that but there are supply demand equations going on always at the margin on gold but I think gold to me is Is a must-own in some percentage of your portfolio because I can’t think of a scenario Geopolitical macro risk where it won’t work over a longer period of time could it go to a thousand sure can go to a thousand? And that would be a horrible to go down another 20 percent But I think you you you I think you have to own it There’s too many uncertainties in the marketplace and why I don’t believe we’re gonna overshoot on the inflationary side I don’t think that’s I don’t see that just being an issue for a long long period of time I think it’ll be a slowdown And I think the Fed will stop anything the Fed could potentially cut again And so we’ve already seen QE They say halted it right went from four point five trillion to just over four trillion all of a sudden we got a slop balance made from four points are the balance sheet of Dollars from four point five trillion at the top and now we’re down to but I guess they were on it They want to take it down. We’re at four trillion They wanted supposedly take it to three point five supposedly But they were gonna wait and see But last year they told us they were gonna take it from four point five to two point five, correct? So, can you believe these guys? Yes, I can so I know that God set all factors into the gold situation but I think gold so I think I guess what I’m saying is I think the Cryptocurrency thing whether you believe in blockchain or not I sky try to separate separate those two and I think if anything good comes out of the crypto It’ll be some type of blockchain technology that allows maybe it’s healthcare records, maybe whatever It might be or currency exchange. But you saw if the banks have to agree to do this, which has been the problem Gold will be the place where people go this time it as opposed to the Crimson So that’s why I think you’re seeing a lot of volatility recently That’s why I think you had this catch-up run up to over $1300. Yes. I know We’re back to just over 1200 as we sit here. But so it’s an interesting asset class to me

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