I should and I will, but your response it itself doesn't change the issues. Every shrink knows that surveys leave marginal room for lies and that only truly sitting down, and interviewing an individual in a comfortable space on a mutual level produces more reasonable results.
I've done door-to-door surveys. People lie. People brush you off. People pretend they aren't home. Usually ask "one person" in a household. Hell, Utah complains about house seats because we don't count away missionaries.
I don't like sprawling cities because of the Zimbardo or "Lucifer" effect. Essentially it is the idea that the more people get together the more brash they act and the easier they are manipulated into forming mobs and causing riots or convincing people to jump on a trend or buy a product. Cities are also extremely polluted, violent, and congested with people to a point where it stresses you out and makes you wish someone would nuke them. I'm tired of humans as a whole, I'd rather be a hermit.
no need to apologize dude, i'm just trying to defend Nate Silver. he has earned his right to present ideas like this. but most opposing comments here lack any substance. it sounds like a bunch of irrational complaining. i thought crybaby was putting it lightly. the idea this country is in bad shape because of poor minorities is… weak. i have yet to see a single post why it's good and not bad to vote based on ethnicity. which is the topic. i'd welcome that.
i get what you are saying, and i used to feel the same way, but this dude was able to use easily obtainable polling data to extract the outcome of the last two elections with 99% accuracy. did i mention he did this with regular polling data, the shitty robo phone polling. so where you see problems, he sees salvageable data that is worth millions. but everyone here discredits his findings, why? probably because they got offended. not very productive =/
I live from Kentucky but was born in California. I can assure you that the locals DO NOT like people from outside Kentucky and I can also confirm that the "adults" I work with are not highly educated or enlightened.
And I just list the reasons why polling data is inefficient. Because it is a survey, it isn't a personal questionnaire. Also polling data is very inaccurate for many reasons, I used to do precinct walks in Corcoran, California; I can tell you personally that the experience is one of the reasons I believe this data is extremely inaccurate.
If you can't connect my previous statement to this one you would understand. For example: How do you or he know it is 99% accurate? Who tested it? How?
Also the fact you jump to the conclusion that people don't believe you nor him because they were offended is a pretty skewed generalization, don't you think? Maybe what you are saying is that you are offended that we don't have the same faith as you?
See, now you'll probably tell me that isn't true.
Can't imagine why. Maybe because it isn't, so maybe you shouldn't think that way of people. We have just causes to think the way we do, maybe you should accept that and move on.
i really hope what i claimed is just a generalization. unfortunately i have yet to see any credible argument. like say an argument that presents ideas that don't simply cut Nate down. the whole call-everyone-stupid-to-feel-smart option is pointless and a waste of time. and yes i am offended, i'm offended by people who never commit to an idea so they can just attack everyone who does. had this been a report about black people voting for Obama, i doubt you would get so worked up. no?
by predicting correctly all 50 states in the last election and before that 49/50. so it sounds pretty legit to me. i know it's still a leap of faith, but i much rather listen to his finding then listen to you and discredit Nate just because you talked to some people in CA.
It isn't about my experiences, I used that as an example, if you think it is you are a fool.
It is about how his surveys are based on inaccuracies. Why take any leap of faith is what I'm asking. You don't need to believe me, but this is obviously inaccurate and anyone with the ability to deduce why would know. Don't take it from me, take it from every survey ever conducted. You just don't have the ability to take two sides of the coin and take them into account. This is your ignorance.
to me it sounds like this: i don't want to hear one more statistic about mexican immigration or affiliation with crime until i see a full work up on how most mass shooting are committed by white people. i also don't want to hear about minority unemployment until i see a study on how white people pan handle just as much if not more than minorities. see how unproductive that is? see how borderline offensive that is? see how close minded that is?
You do realize that I'm 1. Libertarian. So Obama versus Romney doesn't matter.
2. I have 2 African American half-sisters and an African American cousin who I took care of as a baby while I lived with my aunt. 3. I'm not calling you dumb, I'm trying to get you to question logic.
How rude of you to be so presumptuous.
Also: You do realize that anyone asked these questions upholds a right to refuse answering them? Meaning: thousands of people with no say in the matter. Was that considered?
Yea. Not a surprise. I'm not sure you can design your way out of it. Education would probably help, but i suspect the neighbor thing is not a causal factor. Good observations though. Nate is pretty sharp. "Dark Vein of Intolerance!" – CP, and I'm out.
you are confusing nationality with ethnicity. that's completely different, black people LIVE in the US and we have been citizens for hundreds of years.
this is racial bigotry not xenophobia, i suggest you look both words up.
Oh spare me the fuckin' sarcasm! I really would like to know about racial attitudes within the non-white communities as well…I'm not hating on Silver and his research. That's great. I merely would like another survey as well
It's irrelevant who is the more effective racist – racist is racist. I want to know the attitudes of different racial groups. It's a known fact that Latinos and Blacks have serious issues with each other, its a known fact that Asians and Blacks have serious issues with each other. And this merely seen in places like California. How about a question asking them their attitudes towards blacks? Or the attitudes of blacks to an ethnic latino or asian president
Not a matter of race a matter of " Miss informed , Indoctrination , Bad upbringing , bad education ? If it was race then obviously the whole idea of " AMERICA " and being American , would then be simply Bullshit.
1. I dont think its reasonable to judge a person by his/her complexion or looks, especially when you're electing a person who will rule a country, so both black and white people who vote for complexion should be condemned.
2. Freedom and economic prosperity are far more important than political correctness, which, in my opinion, can do nothing much but protect some people's susceptibilities and be abused by them. I dont agree with conservatives on some things, abortion, gay marriage for example
but I don't agree with democrats on much more important issues; what the Democratic Party do is rob diligent people, who earn their own living by hard work, to feed parasites, who live on welfare and do nothing but produce more young parasites. When there's no better choice, I can only choose to unite with republicans. But sadly speaking, the Republican Party would probably turn into another DP, cos if they don't they will lose the White House and even the country forever,
no its not, any one can have bigotry or hatred of someone, its actions that count. and white Americans are the majority and they hold more authority in every institution. try telling people who fought for civil rights that it was irrelevant.
people like you live in a bubble and can only see things in terms of black and white (no pun intended), its not that simplistic.
The guy in the talk says race affects vote. Black people voted for Obama based on race.
Does that not coincide with the argument he makes?
Voting for someone because they're black is just as racist as voting against someone because they're black.
He didn't address non-white voters though. It's plain to see that he's an Obama nut, otherwise he would have talked about how the black vote carried Obama in the election.
I can only pray to god that he doesn't throw out the term limits and elect himself again.
You don't have to show your political orientation, as long as you vote for republicans in the election day. I wish some day the election could be just between the republicans and the libertarians, then I'd definitely stand with libertarians to beat the shit out of those anti-gay, anti-abortion, anti-stem-cell-research, racist old fogies.
What does education even have to do with racism?
If anything racism comes from the way parents raise their kids.
Did you notice that he didn't talk about how most blacks voted FOR obama because he was black? Did you know that that's a racially motivated vote, and therefore is racism?
Racism is a theory of racial supremacy. Voting for a half black man to be President for the sake of wanting to see a person of color in that office does not meet those standards.
Its amazing how many people throw out that word not having the slightest clue what it means.
Not everything is black or white.
I can concede that the african american vote was more than likely racially motivated, but I will not agree with the statement that education does not effect a person's racism.
Regardless, my statement said nothing about racism as far as color of skin but rather geographical orientation. My comment was affirming the video's statement, through first hand empirical observation, that Kentucky adults don't value education or the enlightenment movement.
Ignorant assumption from an ignorant person. I did not vote for Obama, and if I did that would not be a form of bigotry.
And what source for saying the majority of blacks who voted for Obama were undereducated? Do you know how to read exit polls?
Can you please cite your source? Under what criteria would you consider under-educated and then show a direct causation that those particular individuals voted for Obama for the single reason that they shared comparable skin pigment.
For a third time, I was merely expressing my own personal experience about an entirely different region of people.
You said yourself that lack of education has to do with racism, and I just agreed with you. The majority of blacks who voted for Obama were not educated. They voted for Obama solely because of his race, they didn't vote because of his policies, they voted because he was black.
How is a racially motivated vote not racism?
you're only confusing yourself by denying the fact.
The majority of blacks have voted for a democratic candidate since Roosevelt. Why? Because democrats support civil rights and equality among races. As far as only the uneducated masses voting for Obama, I cannot agree with that point either. The top 10 highest educated states voted for Obama, and all of them suspiciously white in majority. 9 out of 10 of the lowest educated states voted for Romney, also the majority being suspiciously white. If you need sources, I can provide them.
FALSE. Democrats were hugely racist, particularly in the 1900s. Roosevelt was a racist. So was LBJ(the one who signed the civil rights act). LBJ actually said "“I’ll have those n****** voting Democratic for the next 200 years.". You democrats don't give to craps about race, never have. You only use them for their votes just as LBJ did.Also you can take that educated claim and shove it.Snopes have already dis-proven similar claims by you elitist liberals.Don't attempt to deceive, I will wreak you
You used a quote there. A credible verifiable source. Yes, he said that. Then you go and use Snopes a place where I can find out "Flossing your teeth with cat intestines wont release pheromones that will make you irresistible to women."
Here is a credible source for you, Alex Tabarrok, an economist at George Mason University, and John Sides, a political scientist at George Washington University using general social survey have said almost all racist are republican.
Academia has been massively biased against the right since a least the 1960s/1970s. Surveys find most professors have a strong liberal bias to them. People that's been through most normal universities/colleges see that bias as well(including me). It's been integrated into institutions for the most part. Therefore I could care less what most say politically. The way I see it they need to focus on their fields they are teaching to others, not spreading what they feel personally. Counter-productive
Since I'm not a statistician, I believe there is a lot stopping me. But I'm all for helping fund such a survey…I really would like to know how many African-Americans and non-whites voted for Obama specifically because he was black or non-white. In fact, I would like to include whites as well – how many whites voted for Obama specifically because he was black.
I am just starting this video right now and I'll bet $1000 this video is going to be about racism, but focus exclusively on white racism. I'll bet you they will not talk about how black racism was a factor in African Americans not voting for Romney. Do you know why I am predicting this? Because Nate Silver will likely be obeying the commandments of Political Correctness: Expose only white racism and ignore black and Hispanic racism. Let's see if I'm correct.
It is amazing how illusive bigotry is in ourselves. Let’s look at a few of these speaker’s glaring fallacies. Statistically, African Americans voted overwhelmingly (in 2012 93%) for Obama. So if we removed the low high school graduation rate for African Americans in Arkansas we are left with a high school graduation rate of 87% for whites in Arkansas. This is typical for northern “liberal” states general population. In addition, as someone else posted to this forum, was the question of, “did race influence your vote” directed just at white voters, or did we include African Americans in this as well? It is not completely clear from what the speaker said. If not, based on the 2012 vote I referenced above, that would dramatically skew the numbers. But even if that is not the case and the pole was of white voters only, how is it racism for those white voters to favor someone of their race, but not racism for African Americans to favor someone of their own race? The African American vote was vastly more polarized than the white vote in any state and if it is about literacy, African American populations are woefully illiterate when compared to the population as a whole.
@Jack_Xin Haha, I know right? Those stupid white people (eww) voting for republicans! Lincolns ideas were trash anyways! I can't believe they wasted the money on a memorial for him! And you're right about those senators. They all stereotype everyone!!The democrats are much better options. Not only did they run the KKK, they voted against the 13th and 14th amendments. They are the shining stars of perfect government, as opposed to those racist bigot stereotyping republicans. /sSeriously though. Do you not see the irony of saying "Republican senators… use stereotypes to judge others."?
I'm sure that the students of NY would just love to spend a semester in Little Rock. "Timmy, We've decided that exchange program won't be going to Barcelona. You're all going to Arkansas to sample the delights pigs feet and overt racism".
racism does effect the way people vote. Obama had 98% of the black vote, and RECORD numbers of blacks came out to vote. also, even MANY whites openly admitted that one of the biggest reasons they were voting for Obama was because he would be the first black president. Also, why isn't he sourcing the exit polls he mentions. Come on people. He could just be making this shit up for all we know.
One of the egregious mistakes in his data, right at the beginning, is he's ignoring the virtue signaling on the Left when it comes to race and voting. NY voters claimed race was insignificant because the democratic candidate was black. Democrats can then claim to be virtuous by voting for their candidate. If the Republican candidate was black, then the Southern states would also dismiss race as an issue. This actually gives rise to the virtual signaling reverse racism, in which Obama pulled a racially-inspired historical confederation of votes, simply because he is a black man. I would strongly contend that those voters who claim the candidate's race is a major issue are saying so because they're sick and tired of having the race question jammed down their throat for the entire election. Much like why white middle class Americans turned violently against the democrats who spent the last 8 years telling them they're racist homophobic bigots simply because they're white church-going people who would rather save for their kids' education than give more in taxes to support SJW agendas in Washington DC. In their minds, transgender issues were only issues because the Left made them issues for 8 years.