Early or Wrong on Gold? (w/ Brent Johnson) | Gold

Early or Wrong on Gold? (w/ Brent Johnson) | Gold


[MUSIC PLAYING]
[ROCK MUSIC PLAYING] So, of course, as always, I have a lot to
say about gold. You know, I think the first thing I want to
get across is that my thesis on gold has not changed. Everybody should own gold. It should be part of everybody’s portfolio. And you know, I’ve said for a long time that
gold is going to go to at least $5,000. That hasn’t changed. Gold is going to go to $5,000. And the reality is, it’s probably going to
go a lot higher than that. But so– for anybody that’s trying to put
me– you know, peg me down as far as time and price, I’ll say $5,000. Now, I don’t know if I’m going to necessarily
tell you exactly when. But I still think gold goes to at least $5,000. The only question is when. But part of the other thing is that– part
of the reason that gold will go that high is because it will be at least part of the
solution when this, you know, horrible system that the central banks have created eventually
comes down. You know, this dollar milkshake theory is
not one in which the dollar remains the world reserve currency. I think we’re going to get to a place where
the dollar gets so strong they’re going to have to come to some new kind of Plaza Accord
or some kind of a system where they dramatically reduce the dollar. But it’s not going to be where– where we–
that we reduce the dollar and people are mad at us. I think the world’s going to beg us to reduce
the value of the dollar. Because you know, the strong dollar, quite
honestly, it just breaks the entire monetary system. It breaks international markets. It breaks emerging markets. And it actually is, in the long term, not
great for the US markets either. But it doesn’t mean it’s going to happen right
now. So I think over the next couple of years,
the dollar goes much, much stronger. I think initially, that breakout is going
to surprise a lot of people. I think it’s going to create a lot of chaos. And it will ultimately be that chaos that
makes gold go a lot higher. I tell people all the time that a lot of the
typical gold theory is that the dollar gets inflated away and gold goes through the world–
goes through the roof. And there is that view. But there is nothing that is more long-term
bullish for gold than a strong dollar. Before we get into that, let’s talk about
a little bit why gold, quote-unquote, “hasn’t worked” for the last several years. Well, the reality is is I think gold has worked
for the last several years. Many of us in the gold world got it wrong
as far as timing when it would work in US dollar terms. But if you’re not a US dollar investor, you
know, and you lived in Cyprus, or Russia, or Argentina, or Venezuela, gold worked just
fine. Gold did what it has always done for 5,000
years. It’s provided a safe haven when things got
bad. And the reality is is that things did not
get worse here in the United States over the last five or six years. And as a result, gold has not performed as
it has in those other currency terms. But it doesn’t mean that gold isn’t working. I think a lot of the pain and a lot of frustration
with those in the gold world that are feeling the frustration from gold not having done
anything are those who bought gold as a speculation, not as an insurance. Or it’s those who told themselves they bought
it as insurance, but really bought it as a speculation or a “get rich quick” scheme. If you bought gold as a hedge against the
rest of your portfolio and the rest of the world blowing up or all the spinning plates
that the central bankers have going crashing, then gold is still working. Because the reality is, the plates have not
crashed yet. They will. There’s no doubt that they will. But they haven’t yet. And so gold hasn’t needed to do anything. But gold’s been around for 5,000 years. It’s always been, at least from a market perspective,
a currency and the last currency of resort. And that’s not going to change over the next
5,000 years either. So if you’re a gold investor, and you have
it in your portfolio, and you didn’t put all your money in gold, you’re probably just fine. So now, there’s also many people in the gold
world who will say that the only reason gold hasn’t worked for the last five years is manipulation,
that the decades long gold manipulation scheme between the central banks, the governments,
and the commercial banks have worked together to keep the price of gold low. Now, even if you take that view, the fact
is, you are still wrong. Because if you– this is not a new theory. This manipulation theory has been out there
for decades. Anybody who’s spent more than five minutes
in the gold world knows about this theory. So if you bought gold five or six years ago,
four years ago, whatever it is, and you were wanting it to pay off much quicker, and it
didn’t because you think it’s been manipulated over that time period, well, the only reason
you would have bought it four or five years ago is not because it wasn’t manipulated. You knew it was manipulated. The only reason you bought it then was because
you thought that the manipulation was going to fail. And the reality is the manipulation hasn’t
failed. If you subscribe to the view that gold has
been manipulated lower, than the manipulation is still working. Right? And so I think it would help a lot of people
in the gold world if we would just admit that we’ve been wrong for the last five years. I didn’t think that the monetary authorities
could keep the plates spinning for another five or six years. I thought it would come down much sooner than
that. I was wrong. The plates are still spinning. But it doesn’t mean that gold has failed. It just means we’ve got timing wrong. And I think the fact that if– if you say
the words, I was wrong, it’s very freeing. It actually– it takes a lot of pressure off
you. And you can actually then move on to the next
step and say, well, why was I wrong? Why did the gold not go up? Why are the plates still spinning? And I think that will help prepare you for
the next five or six years. So now, let’s talk a little bit about the
dollar milkshake theory and how that applies to gold. Well, I think it largely depends on where
you’re sitting and in what currency you’re denominated. You know, if you’re an international person
or entity, and you are not denominated in dollars, whether– I don’t know if you’re
in euros, or you’re yen, or you’re yuan, or bolivar, or whatever you are, I think you
can probably pretty much back up the truck and buy over the next couple of months. I think the dollar’s going to get a lot, lot
stronger. But if the dollar gets a lot, lot stronger,
that means a lot of these other currencies are getting a lot, lot weaker. That means gold, in those terms, is probably
going to go a lot, lot higher. It would not surprise me at all in these other
currencies of gold rises 15% to 30% over the next 12 to 18 months. I think that could easily happen. So I think determine where you’re at and which
currency you’re denominated before you just say gold is going up or down. I think that’s a very important point to make. Now, I think it gets a little bit more complicated
if you’re a dollar investor. You know, I have said for over two years now
that I think eventually we’re going to get into a situation where dollars and gold rise
together. And I still firmly believe that. The strength of the dollar is going to cause
such chaos in the global monetary system that the safe haven that gold has always provided,
I think, is going to come into higher demand. And there will be a point where they rise
together. Now, that said, for those of you that heard
me say gold’s going to $5,000 earlier, I want you to keep those positive feelings that you
had when I said that because I don’t know that it’s going to happen over the next five
or six months. In fact, I think there’s a good chance that
gold goes lower in the short term. It might not. And if it goes higher, I will embrace the
breakout. And we’ll be on to, probably, another five
or 10-year bull market in gold. But I’m just not sure that it’s going to break
out yet. You know, we had another great opportunity
this spring to break out, and it didn’t happen. And I think with the move that the dollar
is going to make over the next six to 12 months, I think it will be very challenging for gold
to break out initially with that. And so I think if you are a US investor, or
a dollar-based investor, I’m not saying that you should sell your gold. The gold theory is still very much intact. But I’m just not convinced it’s going to break
out right now. [ROCK MUSIC PLAYING]

57 Comments

  1. 💜 2 ❤️
    Part 1: The Song of Gold
    Gold is a danger
    Of a different kind
    It takes you away
    And leaves you far behind
    And gold gold gold
    Is a dangerous drug
    You have to receive it
    And you still can't
    Get enough of the stuff
    It's savage and it's cruel
    And it shines like destruction
    Comes in like the flood
    And it seems like religion
    It's noble and it's brutal
    It distorts and deranges
    And it wrenches you up
    And you're left like a zombie
    And I want you and I want you
    So much it’s an obsession.
    (Eurythmics… kinda.)
    Coming up next
    Part 2. ‘Gold Bug’ Truth
    unveiled.
    Part 3. The Good News

  2. If the dollar is going to strengthen, causing other currencies to decline – why should people holding other currencies buy gold instead of the dollar?

  3. Hey “Milk Shake Mama” I think you are way too conservative. $5,000 per OZ… way higher. I’m sure it’ll hit a Million. But as you I can’t say when or where with certainty. Think big little fellow. The sky is the limit.

  4. Heart 💜 2 ♥️… Another stinking preacher. Talk about god all day and point to the sky… with their left hand in your back pocket. This station is a hornets nest of blood sucking vampires from a Universe I never heard of except in Dante’s Inferno. They are a little more sophisticated the Alex Jones … sophisticated ‘enough Dream Merchants’ peddling for your money. I am an investor speculator. Do not ever trust anyone who advertises “dreams” solid Money Managers do not do that. People come to them by word of mouth. Salesmen who stand on street corners wearing red lipstick do not have anything worthy of purchase. Unless you got a death wish. Ask your friends who they use. Don’t be stupid ‘people peddling money for money?” Are you that stupid. Be my guest.

  5. The US dollar will not be rising 15-30% against the Euro or yen over the next 18 months. Certainly, back in 2008, the US dollar index rallied quite a bit. But back then, the forex markets weren't expecting QE from the fed. Now they are.

  6. Why would 5 decades of history be wrong and you be right? "This time is different" – keep saying that to yourself. It's never different. The simplicity of it is this: The USD is going down into 2023, gold is going up into 2023. The USD and GOLD are inversely correlated over the long term. DEAL WITH IT!

  7. Yes, I was wrong in the past few years.
    My mistake was in assuming that the Fed could not keep inflation contained to assets (primarily stocks). I was certain that sooner or later it would leak into the broad economy and drive commodity prices higher, and I'm still certain it will happen at some point. But it's taking much longer than I had anticipated, and I realize it could take longer.

  8. Lol. So he won't say when. This genius may be right. In a hundred years and his great grand kids will say "told you so"!

  9. REal Vision are you gonna REcut and REfeed us old material to REimburse yourself with REnewed viewer counts? Ya know, milk the cow dry like Disney and Star Wars REmastered?

  10. great finer point on performance in local currency terms… simple but a bit easy to miss from a US perspective

  11. Gold will go higher when the crash begins. The crash is being postponed until after the next US election. 3 to 6 months into the next presidency it will be obvious. We look forward to something that will be very disturbing, especially if you are prepared. Then we can deal with the guilt and shame we will most likely wonder at feeling.

    The real crash happened in 2008 and the suffering has been ongoing…

  12. Just look to Japan to see how long the Bankers can keep this BS going.
    They have to power to change the rules, they have to power to do many things to their advantage and they will.
    If Gold wasn't worth keeping the CB's wouldn't bother holding it.
    Just look around the world at all the financial troubles country's are having and how it's created .
    And who are the ones that pays for it?
    That's right we pay for it.
    If you want to invest $$$ don't buy gold!
    Buy what the Bankers want you to buy, stocks,bonds, and any other shit they invest in.
    Will gold go up? Sure it will, when they let it!
    CB's don't hold gold to hedge their holdings. CB's hold Gold the hedge against us waking up!

    BUY LOTS OF GOLD, tell everybody you know to buy GOLD! If you want the system to change don't use it!

  13. Gold oz is £985.00 UK price as i write, 1 Bitcoin is £3980.00 as i write. bitcoin 4 x the price of gold, what more can i say

  14. one important point missed or not made is bitcoin, they took lot of spaeculative liquidity out of Gold market. USD can't afford GOLD to go higher to make it bypass barter currency. King dollar and Gold will maintain their equillibirum, after they are done plundering EM, SDR, Bitcoin and other currencies.(Yes i omitted euro, because there will not be euro future)

  15. I would love an honest and reliable report of the true supply/demand fundamentals for gold and silver. The longer I observe this community I'm more confused as to the true worth of the metals from a supply and demand picture. 15 dollar silver may be what it is worth. As evidenced by the price staying in a very narrow range for years. If there were shortages wouldn't companies rush out to lock up their supply and drive price up?

  16. I liked and subscribed to your channel, great video. Please check out my channel too, I have many videos covering PM's.

  17. Buy Gold, …. blah blah blah, …. Buy silver,….blah blah blah….. Until the world comes to an end which pretty much will happen if the US economy collapses ill keep investing in the US stock market and all you fear mongers can buy gold.

  18. Gold is smashed down to US1276/ounce, all those machines shortings are working so well for Fed. Stock markets keep popping up for the elites. Ordinary folks are burned by holding gold , Fed wins again.

  19. If the dollar strengthens 15 – 30%, that would really hurt exports. The stock market would drop about that same amount. That's why Trump has been asking for a weaker dollar. Strong dollar is deflationary. Fed won't allow it. They will start QE4 long before dollar strengthens by 30%.

  20. His Milkshake theory which he has been talking about for years hasn't happened, and is unlikely to happen. He previously called 3 rate hikes in 2019, he was wrong on that call and he's wrong on the USD.

  21. lol, all those idiots who never read history kept repeating the same nonsense. Here is the real track record: gold outperformed the US stock market since Bretton Woods went down. That's a stellar 50 year track records. If stocks cannot rival gold, the falling dollar won't stand any chance

  22. 1. Astrinomical world debt, 250Trillion +
    2. Usa astrinomical debt, 50 Trillion+
    3. People loosing faith in fiat.

    Its the ultimate security, now, and later.

  23. The landscape is not right yet. Oil has to go up and US $ has to lose more value. This perfect storm will be just after trump gets re elected.

  24. Brent is not taking the position that Trump will eliminate the Fed in order to free America from the Central bank slavers.
    He is trying to kick the can down the road long enough so he can create a softer landing into a monetary system run by the US Treasury and not the Fed. He would then need to back the new currency with hard assets such as gold/ silver , land, energy , technology, medicine . Re-establish the faith and strength of the American currency. When the restrictions due to paper contracts
    would be eliminated due to law changes or the complete colapse then and only then will gold and silver rise to its real value .
    I am not so sure that the government isnt keeping gold suppressed to somehow purchase it to create a gold backed currency as I stated earlier. Only time will tell.

  25. If gold goes to 5000, silver will go to 500. Which would you buy something that would go up 4x or something that would go up 33x. Seems like a no brained.

  26. I'm sure one day $5000 an ounce gold will happen. Wether it would represent any real gain is another question

  27. The US dollar will not continue to rise wrt gold in the long run. For God's sake, Trump is already requesting another QE! The FED will have a choice, default or print. Which do you think they will opt for?

  28. It is all a "game" the Feds want to play. The DEBT will never be addressed. You cant increase spending without financial cuts to stabilize the budget. We are past the point of no return. It is funny to me why are all the central banks net buyers of gold?

  29. I follow Russia & China, Russia just added another 18.2 tons of gold to their reserves, those nations know it cant keep going like it is, the perfect storm – Russia knows from their soviet union era of printing money out of thin air that sooner or later it collapses.

  30. If you're one of those precious metals doomsday stackers, why not go out and hasten the inevitable once you've bet on it? It's very easy, organize a few hundred like minded individuals, go out and do organized bank runs. Get as much media coverage as possible. Watch as the contagion and panic quickly spread.

  31. Surely the dollar is going to get weaker with more QE and a wobbly overpriced stock market , which looks ready to correct .
    Am i reading this wrong ?

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