Gold and Silver Price Forecast 2016 – by illuminati silver – Conclusion – part 3 of 3

Gold and Silver Price Forecast 2016 –  by illuminati silver – Conclusion  –  part 3 of 3


Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Wednesday 24th February 2016 and
we are providing the third and final part of 3 videos as to our predictions for gold
and silver for this year. Video 1 in the series identified the 11 main factors we take into
account when assessing the gold market. Video 2 highlighted the factors we take into account
when assessing the silver market and some of their implications.
In summary, the key factors we take into consideration, when assessing future prices and trends are:
1. Value of the U.S. Dollar 2. Value of Individual Countries currencies
3. Interest Rates 4. Inflation
5. Supply vs. Demand 6. Government Reserves/Holdings
7. Central Bank Instability 8. Quantitative Easing
9. Speculation 10. ETF’s, Futures, Comex
11. Global Crisis – Safe Haven Investment 12. Jewellery and coin demand
13. Silver as an Industrial Metal 14. Buying from China and India
15. Trend Analysis and Technical trading 16. The Gold to Silver Ratio
17. Gold to silver correlation 18. Politicians and Political dogma
Most of these were included and explained in videos 1 & 2.
The area we did not include, and is worthwhile mentioning, is the issue of Psychographics
which is the study of personality, values, opinions, attitudes, interests, and lifestyles.
Most marketers will include this area and regard it as a key proponent of their analysis
when considering creating new products or entering new markets and the same applies
to investment decisions. So getting back to the point in hand, and
before we give our forecast for future prices, which we frankly dislike doing for the short-term,
as we are fundamentalists and therefore are more interested in the medium to longer term
– i.e. 5+ years, we have to give a caveat. Namely:
Although we have taken geopolitical issues into account our forecasts are based on a
black swan event not occurring e.g. should an unexpected war break out, a world leader
is assassinated or a meteor strikes the Earth or something equally as significant and is
therefore unforeseen. So with this in mind let’s look at silver.
According to the Silver Institute they predicted in January that they expect silver for industry
to increase its share of total demand in 2016 from the 54% experienced in 2015. Whilst this
may be the case, bearing in mind that industrial silver stood at 56% in 2014 we do not foresee
this 54%-56% range being exceeded. If anything, should the world economic growth and especially
that of China, decline further, then we can envisage zero increase in the existing 54%
figure. And before anyone quotes solar panels at us, it must be pointed out that although
the demand for these are likely to rise in 2016, so too will the use of aluminium as
a substitute, which is significantly cheaper and a potential decrease in demand for electronic
devices. Last year 130 moz of silver coins were demanded
and we envisage a similar if not slightly higher figure being acquired this year. Also,
with India importing 228m oz of silver bullion in 2015, with the possibility of more favourable
tax treatment, we may indeed see this figure rise by 5% – 10% in 2016.
On the supply side, the Silver Institute forecasts a fall by 5% for 2016. We agree with this,
unless prices actually rise further and the price of oil remains low.
Overall we therefore see silver for 2016 trading in the same range as experienced in 2015 between
$13 – $17.50. We must bear in mind, that the first two months of this year has already
witnessed an excellent rise but there is resistance at the $16 level and significant resistance
at the $17.50 level. The GFMS team at Thomson Reuters forecasts silver prices to average
$15.51/oz for the full calendar year and this ties in well with our price range of $13 – $17.50.
We were anticipating pull backs from this time onwards, but they have not as yet occurred
and may hold out longer than we originally anticipated.
With regards to gold opinion is divided. Last year’s London Bullion Market Association’s
2015 Gold Forecast winner Bernard Dahdah of French Investment and Bullion Bank Natixis
predicts that the gold price will drop through the $1000 level in the first 3 months of 2016
gradually declining to end the year at $950 as he foresees that gold prices “will be
driven by the expected path of interest rate hikes” from the US Federal Reserve.”
Goldman Sachs Bank predicts a price range for 2016 to vary between $1300 – $900 as the
“fear over China, Oil and Negative Interest Rates are overstated”.
Saxo Bank too predicts that gold will fall back but to a level at or around $1168.
We, surprising to some, slightly disagree, certainly for the first quarter of this Year.
We can see gold maintaining its current level as many banks are discussing negative interest
rates and Governments predicting more QE. Poor Trade figures both from the US and Europe
will make interest rate rises not only unlikely but the introduction of negative interest
rates a possibility. Even the Bank of England has mooted this possibility in recent days.
The United Kingdom in particular has the Brexit or exit from the EU vote to consider over
the next few months, and this will prove destabilising for Sterling which has already seen its value
fall 9% on the Year and many predict that should a vote for EU withdrawal be successful
the value of sterling could fall by 20% or more. This means that regardless of the dollar
price of gold and silver, their prices will continue to rise or at least maintain their
existing levels. Since the beginning of January, gold has risen from £720 – £893 an oz a
considerable £173 rise or 24%; whilst in dollar terms it has risen from $1060 to $1244
an increase of $184 or 17% thereby showing a 7% currency disparity. Contagion and concerns
spreading to other EU countries at this time also cannot be ruled out.
With Central banks heavily buying gold and our contacts in Switzerland and Hong Kong
advising that gold is still being acquired at a considerable rate with increased interest
by certain Fund Managers, we are very positive on gold prices over the next few weeks, despite
traders forecasting significant pull backs. We are of the opinion that gold this year
will trade higher in the first half and fall back in the second half of the year in US
dollar terms, and may very well rise above the $1300 and possibly touch the $1350 level
short term where considerable resistance will be met.
Our gold range therefore for 2016 stands currently at a trade of between $1100 – $1350 and only
if the FED actually raises rates can we envisage it falling below these levels.
We have always said that the floor for gold and silver was $1000 and $12 respectively
with possible very brief spikes below. Neither of these levels were reached though gold did
come quite close and silver just over a $1 off. Circumstances this year have changed
and the political environment is causing much apprehension such as Brexit and the possibility
of Donald Trump winning the Republican nomination and even the Presidency. Whether either of
these are good or bad, regardless, they create instability and gold and silver, likes and
benefits from, uncertainty. We are not oblivious to economic slowdowns nor are we oblivious
to Harry Dent’s trend analysis. However we are witnessing funds moving out of the
stock market and into gold, currencies devaluing, thereby making gold more expensive and the
possibility of negative interest rates being introduced or increased around the world,
thereby undervaluing the stated country’s currency even further.
If we were living in any of those countries like the UK and Canada and elsewhere, where
we believe our currencies may fall further against the US dollar, then we would consider
buying gold on dips. Silver in Europe is a very long term bet because of the VAT charged
and that even at $17.50 silver, one would only break even at current purchasing levels.
However, as we still expect the US dollar to remain relatively strong then silver is
an OK buy in our view below $15 but preferably below $14 should they reduce to that level
and gold sub $1200. Providing you do not hold 10% precious metals in your investment portfolio
we believe you should consider acquiring some as a hedge against uncertainty, currency devaluation
and turmoil. For the record and we wish to make this abundantly
clear; we do not believe that Gold is going to suddenly rise to $5000 an oz as Rob McEwen
(Founder of Goldcorp and now CEO of McEwen Mining) did on Palisade Radio on 28th January
2016. Or as Peter Schiff predicted on Elite New World Order Agenda on 16th May 2015; or
skyrocket as he predicted on Greg Hunter’s USA Watchdog on 10th February 2016. Nor do
we believe in Jim Sinclair’s prediction again on Greg Hunter on 25th August 2015 when
he said gold is going to $50,000 an ounce and that silver will be gold on steroids.
We all have to get serious about what is actually happening. Silver is benefitting from Gold’s
attraction as a monetary metal but is suffering because of falling or stagnant Industrial
usage. Economic conditions are not conducive to increases in demand for Industrial purposes,
but are attractive to exchange fiat for precious metals and what is difficult to gauge accurately
is the subsidisation effect of one for the other, especially with regard to silver. We
do not see economic collapse in 2016 though we do foresee much turmoil in both Stock Markets,
Currencies and other asset inflated markets. Added to this, the many reasons why gold and
silver prices should fall, will be counteracted by this uncertainty and the desire at least
for now to hold onto gold and silver as a hedge. We hope you have found this video interesting
and informative and if so, please give it a thumb up and share it on twitter. Also kindly
visit our website at www.illuminatisilver.com and look at our Facebook page which is updated
daily at www.facebook.com/illuminatisilver Disclaimer: Illuminati Silver owners come from a background
of Banking, International Wealth Management and Economics. Having now retired from these
worlds we are not qualified to give investment advice. Therefore, this and other productions
must not be deemed to be giving such advice and merely represent the personal views of
its owners.

65 Comments

  1. Have you given any thought to the possibility that unless gold, silver, or other precious metals are surrendered to a cashless/RFID type system for conversion to credits that will remain within the system, it will be almost impossible to use metals to purchase items of any kind, even food? Thank you for your work.

  2. I always have a big laugh when you say you do not believe gold will skyrocket or go to $50,000 an oz. Not a laugh at your expense but a laugh at the outrageous claims. I WISH it would go to $50k/oz but that is wishful thinking just like I WISH I'd win the lottery–which is definitely wishful thinking since I haven't bought a ticket in many years.

    I've been waiting for gold to drop below $1200 and silver to drop below $15 so I'm glad that's in line with your forecast, barring a meteor (another big laugh on that one) or other black swan event.

    Thanks for the forecast and all the work you (and the others) put into carefully considering all the variables.

    Glad to hear you don't think the financial collapse is imminent. I see it was imminent in 2015, 2014 and 2013 and then of course the world was going end in 2012 so we've really been teetering on the edge of disaster for quite some time. No wonder so many people need anti-anxiety medication these days.

  3. One of the best level headed videos and overall analysis of GLD and SLV i have watched for a while. thank you. perfection and on the money in my view.

  4. Excellent analysis as usual. Unfortunately for myself, I have inherited a bit of debt, so paying that off precludes any short term investment. Perhaps by 3rd qtr, I could see myself back in the market. I was happy to hear that you also pay attention to Greg Hunters channel, as I very much appreciate his interviews. I do wish I could be as certain as you seem to be about the economy and world (peace?). As it is, the Middle East does worry me, and Trump or Sanders or even Hillary do not allay my fears. (perhaps a good Kentucky Bourbon over ice …. would)

  5. I've been remiss in viewing your website – I will rectify this week. Thank you for your in depth analysis but would prefer a $500 an oz prediction on silver so I can bid the UK a less than fond fair well!!

  6. It's extremely hard to predict short term, but I agree with everything that was said in the video if "black swan" events are removed. I have a hard time seeing it fall below $13 when I remember the premiums for $8 silver being incredibly high. However, most of us are in this for a black swan event…lets just be real. Most of us do not buy physical silver with $2-$3 premiums to watch the price bounce between $13-$16. For my purchase to be worth it I need to see blood in the streets. When people on Wall Street start jumping out of buildings again (1929)…it will be a sign that I've become a very wealthy man. What makes me believe a black swan event will soon occur? The volume number of shorts is now equal to 2008 levels right before the crash, OPEC told the United States to F off as they continue ripping the United States companies appendages off limb by limb, if Janet Yellen raised interest rates the entire system would collapse in a very short period of time, Janet Yellen mentioned that theyre considering negative interest rates…because in my opinion they have no options left but to implement negative interest rates, Deutsche Bank, Barclays Bank, and Citigroup are all collapsing as you read this (I have no doubt OPEC plays a huge role in that for their own enjoyment), EVEN THOUGH NO ONE CAN PREDICT THE AMOUNT OF SILVER LEFT IN THE WORLD…..we do know that several silver producers have closed their doors due to an inability to make a modest profit….which in essence will lead to a shortage if demand spikes, and I could talk about how our next president Hillary Clinton smuggled millions of dollars worth of cocaine into the United States through the company Park-O-Meter, is currently under investigation by 150 FBI agents, was best friends with Jeffrey Epstein a billionaire pedophile who was convicted of selling child sex slaves on a massive scale and entertaining his friends like the Clintons at his child sex slave island in the Caribbean, how Hillary turned a $5,000 investments into a 6 figure sum using insider trading, how the Clintons physically and psychologically raped every woman in sight, how the Clintons used the Clinton Foundation to receive donations from Saudi Arabia, and the list goes on…….but instead of continuing I'll simply end with saying that I do believe a black swan event is likely to occur in 2016, and if a black swan event does NOT occur then it will prove to the entire world that God must exist, because every day that goes by from this moment forward where there is not mass murder and rape in the streets….is truly a blessing from God.

  7. @Illuminati Silver… You don't think PM prices will come unhinged form the Comex paper future price when the physical markets open in a few months?

  8. Good Forecast…we have about 5% P.M.'s in our next egg now…hoping to get it to 12 to 15% in the next 2 to 3 years…so hope prices stay relatively stable for now…

  9. Thanks… Brilliant analysis, though perhaps not what silver bugs wanted to hear… Waiting for that 1100 pullback then at the later half of this year… Cheers!

  10. I SEE BLACK DOTS ON THE HORIZON. IT'S EITHER MILITARY TANKS OR BLACK SWANS. THE ELITES ARE NOT DONE PLAYING GAMES WITH THE WORLD COUNTRIES AND COMMODITIES. SINCERELY POOR BROKE OLD RETIRED TRUCKER.

  11. I think the bigger picture for PM's is that metals are an insurance policy not an investment so it shouldn't matter if they don't skyrocket you have to remember your WHY you purchased them. So, I totally agree with your analysis even though we have had some minor disagreements, but it's fair to say you have nothing to gain from your videos. Purchase only what you can afford to hold long term. It's sad but here in the US most of us can hardly afford 5% my self included. Thank you for the objective analysis 😀😀

  12. Thanks for giving us your technical analysis. I'm glad I held off from making a purchase earlier this week awaiting your finial video in this series. LOL But you have reaffirmed what some of my level headed sources have been saying for this year. My goal for silver is long term so I will continue to look for dips throughout 2016. Thanks again!

  13. excellent analysis
    the FED is stuck!
    there is far too much debt to raise interest rates…They only raised rates officially 25 basis points but others say this has not been the case purporting 8 basis points., look what happened to the markets since then ….quite simply the intervention (propping up with more monopoly money) has to stop at some point …traders know the fundamentals are terrible and with QE /PLUNGE PROTECTION Buying futures etc the markets would collapse from todays prices

    The West is following Japan on a demographic slowdow . …therefore official figures are not to be trusted
    I guess anyone listening to this understands the truth. ..we are being lied to on a daily basis ….people are scared to speak the truth regarding the Fiat ponzi scheme as things erode via aging populations increased socialism, government handouts etc the value of faith currencies will be eroded to Zero
    The challenge is to get the savers to switch to precious metals and out of bank accounts with all surplus cash
    the savers are being crushed they need to wake up as the debtors are winning and they are a future black hole.
    so if you know anyone with surplus funds suggest precious metals- it can be passed down to the next generation
    peace and good will to all

  14. Really appreciate your honest forecast. These recent PM price increases have forced me to look elsewhere for value which can only be a good thing. With that said, anything but sterling is my motto for the next 6 months.

  15. If someone put half of their money into gold, and an equal amount of money in cash, over time they would spend the cash, on this and that, and ultimately be left just with the gold, say after 10 years. They would have gone through half of their initial capital. However, if they had put all their money into gold, and promised themselves that they'd not touch it, they would still have all their gold after 10 years. Who would be better off? I think the guy who went all in.

  16. Great series of informational videos, thank you very much. I think your 10% advice is wise and honest in the current environment for investors, but on the low side for a simple saver who may have only modest savings, if any. The long term security and liquidity if needed makes for a good piggy bank, at least until things settle down to normal, and normal is acceptable. Frankly I would not want a 1 ounce rock worth 50k, that would not be much of a currency and we have seen what happens then. I'm investing in a garden and a shack, in case I have to live there, the taxman cometh!

  17. Balanced and realistic. Well done! Great to see another well thought out quality production, rather than many other pundits out there that say it will hugely rise of fall to get greed opportunistic investors excited or put them in fear.

  18. I have a question.. what stocks are the Rothschild family buying right now? if I am going to follow anyone, it might as well be the family that has the most money.

  19. has anyone done any research on japans government pushing for their population to invest more, as they are leaders in electronics and making robots etc. i know their initial attempts werent successful at face value but i wonder if theres a small snowball effect forthcoming particularly as propping up the usd is at the forefront of the feds agenda

  20. Thanks for the vid. Fact is we are in very strange financial times, we are the pawns in this experiment and no one can even begin to comprehend or anticipate what unintended consequences may result from negative interest rates, massive money printing, debt and derivative bombs, or any other weird and wonderful governmental or FED intervention. The risks remain skewed heavily to the downside and paper eventually returns to its intrinsic value. Zero. Feels like we are accelerating towards a big thick wall don't it?!??

  21. ConsideringPhelbas I'm not saying that people don't buy it because of the pumper so. What I'm saying if they bought it for what is was intended to do which is act as a hedge they wouldn't have to worry about the price going up or down.

  22. silver demand is crazy right now—look at Perth Mint–they need to run another shift to keep up,,they also dont have any bars for sale until mid March because they are sold out…..you can buy coins no bars

  23. Mr. Illuminati. I did a tiny amount of research into the substitution of aluminum for silver in solar panels. The company that claims to be on the forefront of this material science and technology breakthrough is called Natcore. Their stock has dropped from the dollar range 2 years ago to the 34 cent range a few months ago. Trading now at 67 cents. That being the case I don't think they've convinced the Warren Buffets of the world that they are even close to substituting billions of dollars of silver for millions of dollars of aluminum. But anything can happen.

  24. aluminum won't work, do some research or get a chemistry degree. why don't we water plants with sand while we are at it?! these people are con artist, the efficiency would fall off so much it would be cost prohibitive due to an increase in surface to make up the difference

  25. The pumpers say that the COMEX is heavily manipulated with paper contracts that cannot be delivered. What's your take on this position? Thank you and cheers!

  26. If you trust the organizations that this guy reads I'd suggest that at this point gold is 1230. and is bouncing but not showing any downward movement silver is staying within the 15 to 16 spot my bet is that the dollar is going into the crapper and the precious metals will quickly balance out much higher than it is presently only time will tell but these organizations he's talking about have been making strong attempts to keep the common man from buying gold/silver … why … simple they want as much as they can get before the SHTF with our currencies particularly the dollar which will pull most if not all currencies down into the pit

  27. i want to thank u for your realistic and quite accurate work illuminati…its so nice to listen to you …here is a little snippet i posted at silver doctors a moment ago

    I have noticed lately that at certain times bad news is good news again in what seems to be a hope of more stimuli from the central banks of the world. I've also heard all kinds of crap about how the central banks and governments have no more tools to stimulate with….i think that statement is complete bullshit….they have kept this recovery in the stock market going longer than anyone thought was possible and the point i want to make is that gold did NOT benefit from money printing after 2011….so i ask you Eric and Doc …whats so different now ??? gold is acting better but it has had strong starts in each of the last 3 years …and each time gold starts to out preform you guys start pumping and talking the same old same old and what happens ???? gold gets smashed back down…it's getting to the point that the only person i know who can stay objective is illuminati silver and thank gawd for him

  28. we could easily see 1800 dollar gold by October if the economy continues to deteriorate and the FED launches QE4 and negative interest rates.

  29. silver institute is flawed in its information and world gold council is kind of funny because they seem to try to cap the price of gold like its not a good thing – they have an anti-gold agenda ( the name is meant to mislead ). I bet you will go and say the miners are the world gold council but I"m sure those miners have to be named members to get their loans from the banks. Why would GATA be shunned altogether and not given any voice whatsoever if its in the interest of the metal's value?

    The CEO of World Gold Council came from a 30 year background working consulting in the financial services industry. Then there is Natalie Dempster a top Managing Director who was an RBS floor trader /economist. Another top guy, Managing director by the name of Somasundaram P.R. – worked for Standard Chartered Bank of India. None of these people at the top of the WGC have any experience with any mining operations but I'd bet to get those loans from the banks you better sign up as a member if you are a miner.

    Just pointing out that some of the resources you would think would be ok to use, that you are using, are not there to help the metals industry but rather to hurt it.

  30. I know the idea of a rising interest rate would make gold/silver that do not yeild interest seem like they would lose value but in the current market that just isn't true. If the fed raises rates ( which they did and look what happened – stocks have fallen significantly since then and gold and silver have risen substantially ) they do so at the peril of the stock markets. Schiff is right when he says that once the market realizes that they can't raise rates without doing this the dollar will tank and gold will skyrocket. Skyrocket subjective to how high but he has always said around 5000 but we don't know the time frame of how long, clearly not in one trading day. The reason for this reaction of stocks and financial market turmoil over the rate rais is because too much corporate debt/gov. debt/ lending to do stock buybacks, consumer debt etc. etc. At some point the piper must be paid.

  31. my apologies to you the channel host for having been rude in the past ( prior videos). I do disagree with you but I now think you are giving your honest and well intentioned opinions and I like to hear opposing viewpoints but do expect to hear my dissenting viewpoints. Thank you for your time and work!

  32. You fail to mention any market manipulation of PM's, which is obviously keeping the prices low……real low.

  33. Is a VAT charged on ETF's? SLV has no premium. What about second hand items and low premium antiques, like common sterling flatware? Correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you get away with a 16% margin tax on profit there rather than the full vat, and I know that here in the states it's pretty easily find a motivated seller, with buckets of old spoons and the like they've accumulated, looking to unload.

  34. Philip —What is your opinion of junk silver? Your better off buying 1 oz silver eagle. Your local coin dealer more likely to buy it, since it's a popular resaleable item for them. Junk silver usually premium very high. 1 mercury dime goes now for $1.50, and a quarter go for $3.50. Yup, silver eagle would be a better bet GOOD LUCK!

  35. I think price of PM's mainly dictated at present by US dollar, and the cheaper cost in trading of paper rather than physical.
    Silver is slowly declining in production, so in 10 years could very well be much higher, as mining costs will get much more expensive per ounce and many mines closed through environmental issues.
    Gold silver ratio naturally occurring in earth's crust 13.5 to 1
    Silver oxidises, gets polished, used in production, binned, it would be interesting to see how much actually gets lost of above ground stock each year.
    I suspect an awful lot on the scale of things.
    Gold just accumulates year on year so the ratio may be even lower.

  36. Great first 2 part "pry-mer" as we say in the US, "prim-er" in the UK.

    Psycho graphics? Wow! I'm all ears!

    "Yellen reiterated that the Fed doesn’t want to let inflation overshoot,
    which could force it to hike rates at a pace that jeopardizes a long
    expansion. But the Fed’s new tack seems to acknowledge the opposite
    argument, that the Fed is running low on ammunition and shouldn’t risk
    weakening the economy now, when inflation is low, because it won’t be
    able to do much to fight off deflation."
    IBD 3/16/16 – hardly a "pumper" organization.

    Lends credence to Peter Schiff. What say you?

    Oh, and thank you for your work, very well done, my compliments.Your are most useful to us when you take the "point/counter point" approach rather than attacking opposing views.

  37. the price of gold has gone up steadily as well as platinum and silver ,then they sit there at 1250 avg and silver avg 15 .80 to 16 and change platinum from 900 range to 1200 range ……………the pricing on this video is all over the map one thing was consistent the price went up a bit more than most everyone thought on all metals and are not coming back down soon or I don't see a fall back down as fundamentals have not changed china has slowed down but all these commodities rise counter to what you have been saying for a while now IM a little confused and have not heard from you lately in spite of all the fed emercency meetings with the Fed and the thin dark man…..

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