Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Saturday 18th August 2018 and we
are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 17th August.
Gold fell $27 last week from to $1,211 to $1,184 having hit a high of $1,213 and a low
of $1,161. In sterling terms gold finished the week down £19 at £929 and in Euros it
closed at 1,035 Euros down 26 euros on the week.
Silver fell 51 cents from $15.31 to $14.80 having hit a high of $15.35 and a low of $14.37.
In sterling terms, it closed at £11.61 that’s down 38 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.94
euros that’s down 0.48 euros on the week. The Gold to Silver Ratio rose from 79.1:1
to 80:1 again another consecutive increase. The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 25,669 up
110 points on the day and up 356 points on the week; and the NASDAQ closed at 7,816 up
10 points on the day but down 23 points on the week.
Brent Crude fell 98 cents from $72.81 to $71.83 and US Light Crude fell $1.93 from $67.63
to $65.69 The dollar index stands at 96.10 that’s
down 0.25 on the week. Wow did last week prove exciting? Gold practically
fell almost from the beginning, to its lowest level on Thursday at $1,161 and managed to
recover a little ground late Thursday and on Friday.
Trading opinion seems to reflect that a number of short positions were closed on Friday to
avoid exposure moving into the weekend. Short term, as we have persistently remarked – its
all about the dollar. The dollar softened slightly towards the end of last week, thereby
giving precious metals a slight impetus and a road to recovering a small amount of their
losses – but let’s not be sanguine about this – anything that adds strength to the
dollar will short term be negative for gold and silver prices.
Now the old theory used to be, if there is a conflict in the world or a dispute, people
would rush to gold as a safe haven. Generally there is a lot of empirical evidence to support
this, but with traders looking for gratification, and the fear of currency devaluation, what
happens initially is that traders move monies into the US Dollar. Now this is an anathema
to those who believe that the dollar is in immediate peril. They quote that the Debt
Clock stands at $21.3 trillion and this is unsustainable. We have said for over 3 years
that even $30 trillion is sustainable but as we near that level, if we do, then nervousness
certainly enters both bankers and traders psychology if not physiology. At some stage
we shall provide a video supporting why we say this, but it will be somewhat technical,
but we shall cover it in due time. We have also observed some of our subscribers
reacting to the 2 videos we put out this week asking us if we believe market manipulation
occurs and has this week not been an example of the US Government punishing gold and silver
deliberately? Our answer once again is that we do believe there have in the past been
Government interventions, mainly to preserve a stable market. There has been much more
manipulation by traders and institutions attempting to make a quick buck, but this generally is
short lived. Last weeks fall was more to do with the dollar strength and the movement
of monies out of emerging economies and their currencies where there are genuine reasons
for fear. President Trump’s trade tariffs and threats of more adds to this uncertainty
and fear. Even at these low levels we wish to remind listeners that the majority of mines
which extract gold and or silver, are still operating with lower AIC’s – All In Costs
– and so can still operate and function profitably. So, we haven’t reached that
stage yet necessarily where supply, and the prospect of future supply, is affected. On
the positive front and as we alluded in our last video, China may indeed be coming to
the table to discuss tariffs etc with the US in September which may ease some tension,
but Turkey is certainly not out of the woods as yet.
From a technical point of view, traders were taken aback by how easily gold fell below
the $1200 level which had until now provided quite a resistive floor, and the general consensus
is, and this is from a trading point of view, not a stacking point of view, that traders
may use any rise near to $1200 as an opportunity to ‘short gold’ – which reveals currently
their expectations in the short term. Silver again followed gold’s path and we
are sorry for continuing to repeat this, but at the moment gold is the leader and silver
the follower. It sliced through the $15 level with ease, reaching its low at $14.35 on Thursday
recovering a little again Thursday afternoon and Friday.
One trader commented “The $14 level underneath is massive support, but I cannot help but
notice that we have formed a bit of a descending triangle that has broken. We could go below
the $14 level, and if we do I think that shows just how strong the US dollar would become.”….
I am watching the level just below with great interest, as it could open up a nice buying
opportunity, or could open up the floodgates for the sellers. The next couple of weeks
will be crucial.” Frankly we agree with him. Whereas we suspect
silver may meander between $14.50 – $15 as the dollar softens, if there is any geopolitical
news which may cause it to rise again, we could well see silver drop again towards $14
and possibly just below. We have stated this for quite a few months, but we are also of
the opinion that silver trading in the $13 range is likely to attract a considerable
number of buyers but again short term the US Dollar rules.
Our take on the recent price moves are revealed in the last 2 videos we produced which you
will find highlighted just below this video in the description section.
So what is likely to affect prices this coming week? Well
• Monday and Tuesday are pretty quiet periods as far as official reports are concerned.
• On Wednesday we have the FOMC minutes supporting the FED meeting on 31st July and
1st August – and this should provide an insight into how close the next interest rate
rise is likely to be. • On Thursday we have New Home Sales for
July and flash Markit Manufacturing and Services PMI for August
• Friday durable goods orders and capital goods orders for July.
For those actually interested in banking and what the FED Chairman has to say will be delighted
to know (OK a touch of hyperbole here) that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is
scheduled to speak next Friday, August 24th, at the annual global central bank conference
in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. He will speak on monetary policy in a changing economy at the
start of the two-day conference, according to the notice from the Fed. Fed chairs in
the past have used speeches at the Kansas Fed-sponsored conference to signal future
U.S. central bank policy moves. So, what will happen to gold and silver prices
this week? Frankly we do not know as it could go in either direction. There is the prospect
for a small improvement, but International developments will have an impact on the dollar
in either direction. What we do believe is that there may be a short period of gestation
whereby the market gets used to sub $1200 gold and sub $15 silver for a few days or
perhaps a week, and then we should see movement, in our opinion downwards slightly once again.
However, please take note, that it was the FED’s intention to raise interest rates
again in September, but if the dollar increases its strength from its current level, it will
be difficult for the FED to do that and this may be the start of a gold and silver prices
recovery. We shall have a better picture once this coming week is over. We hope you have found this video interesting
and informative and if so, please give it a thumbs up and share it on twitter. Please
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updates and offers. Disclaimer:
Illuminati Silver owners come from a background of Banking, International Wealth Management
and Economics. Having now retired from these worlds we are not qualified to give investment
advice. Therefore, this and other productions must not be deemed to be giving such advice
and merely represent the personal views of its owners.