Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Saturday 22nd September 2018 and
we are providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 21st September.
Gold rose $5 last week from $1,194 to $1,199 having hit a high of $1,210 and a low of $1,192.
In sterling terms gold finished the week at £917 up £4 and in Euros it closed at 1,021
Euros down 6 Euros on the week. Silver rose 23 cents from $14.07 to $14.30
having hit a high of $14.42 and a low of $14.05. In sterling terms, it closed at £10.94 that’s
up 17 pence and in Euros it closed at 12.17 Euros that’s up 0.06 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio fell a full 1 point from 84.86:1 to 83.84:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 26,743 up 86 points on the day and up 589 points on
the week; and the NASDAQ closed at 7,986 down 41 points on the day and down 24 points on
the week. Brent Crude rose $0.71 from $78.09 to $78.80
and US Light Crude rose $1.79 from $68.99 to $70.78
The dollar index stands at 94.22 that’s down 0.70 on the week.
We ended last week’s video with the comment: “This coming week we again see gold and
silver rangebound and frankly they should be modestly positive” with the caveat to
watch the dollar. Well again this is what happened, and the dollar weakened slightly,
and gold and silver rose albeit modestly. Now to be fair, gold strengthened from the
beginning of last week’s opening but fell away somewhat on Friday. It is incredibly
range bound with an $18 parameter. Normally at this time of year we would expect to see
gold strengthen quite significantly and it does not seem to be happening and it appears
to rest comfortably at that $1200 level. Now chartists or technical analysts say that if
it breaks above the $1,225 level it will quickly move to $1,250 and then $1,300. On the opposite
side they also claim that if it breaches $1,175 it will rapidly fall to $1,100 and frankly,
they are in two minds as to which direction it is heading.
Silver also came out of the gate stronger last week and maintained a degree of momentum
again until Friday. What impressed us about silver to be totally frank, is how strong
that $14 floor appears to be and the question everyone is asking is; can that level be breached
or are we now heading towards $15 silver again? Now our listeners are aware that we are still
more bearish short term than bullish but frankly very long term we are exceedingly bullish
silver, and this is the schizophrenic nature of what we are doing on this channel. We are
constantly fighting our innate desire to see gold and silver rise because that is where
we believe it should be long term, against our analysis which has, for the past 4 years,
suggested short term decline in prices. What most traders currently are in agreement
with is, that this is still all about the dollar and with a volatile President in the
WhiteHouse following strategies, if not policies, which are not fully predictable, as others
have done in the past, makes any potential short-term predictions incredibly difficult
to confirm or be certain about. That said, this is an important week ahead
of us. • Tuesday – Consumer Confidence Index for
September • Wednesday An important day, as we get
the FOMC announcement on Interest rates and Jerome Powell’s Press Conference at 2.30
• Thursday – GDP revision for Q2 and durable goods orders for August
• Friday – Consumer consumption for August, Core inflation for August, Consumer
sentiment for September. So, this is a very important week for the
dollar and therefore precious metal prices. Now if you take anything from this video this
week, we ask you to take this. The FED would like to see rates rise to 3%
before next year is out. With inflation already at its 2% target, we are confident they will
raise rates this week. Now the Regional FED Governors have gone on the record stating
that rates will also likely to rise in December and have indicated that another 2 rises are
due next year as well. If the economy continues to grow at or above 4% and unemployment remains
low, then this is what will happen. The FED has to reign down on inflation, and ironically,
and many people miss this, trade tariffs on imported goods actually increases costs and
therefore inflation and so this has an impact on the FED’s policy. Now providing these
factors remain in place and nothing intervenes to affect it, then one can see a continuingly
strong dollar into next year and its commensurate effect on gold and silver prices. In other
words, all things being equal, we should see strong economic growth, rising interest rates
and dollar and lower gold and silver prices. Now this is a little superficial, but the
methodology is pretty clear. However, emerging market crisis and potentially
lower growth in Europe and the negative effects on trade that tariffs potentially have, could
cause the FED to rethink its strategy on interest rates and just delay their rise by a few months.
Now we still believe that this week is baked in and December is 90% certain but a lot can
happen between now and December, such as mid term elections in the US, and we shall know
the ramifications of President Trump’s risky strategy on trade negotiations by imposing
tariffs first. So, what we hope to glean on Wednesday is
not so much the rate rise decision per se (though if there were not a rise then we will
see the dollar fall dramatically), but what comments Jerome Powell makes about future
rates. If he is hawkish and says that the US is on track for higher rates in December,
then we shall see a dollar rise and a fall in gold and silver prices. If he says that
the future is uncertain and is quite dovish then the opposite will occur.
Now we accept there are many other factors which affect precious metal prices, however
most agree ‘it’s all about the dollar’ and as we all know, paper trading dictates
prices currently and therefore sentiment is all important.
So our prediction for this week, is lets wait and see what Jerome Powell says on Wednesday,
we think he will be moderately hawkish, however he cannot overplay his hand as he will not
wish to roll back anything he says in a month or so time.
And for those of you who are waiting our COT Report training part 2 – we are currently
putting it together and will publish it tomorrow without fail.
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Disclaimer: Illuminati Silver owners come from a background
of Banking, International Wealth Management and Economics. Having now retired from these
worlds we are not qualified to give investment advice. Therefore, this and other productions
must not be deemed to be giving such advice and merely represent the personal views of