Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Saturday 4th August 2018 and we are
providing our gold and silver weekly update for the week ending 3rd August.
Gold fell $10 last week from $1,223 to $1,213 having hit a high of $1,227 and a low of $1,204.
In sterling terms gold finished the week unchanged at £933 and in Euros it closed at 1,049 Euros
again unchanged. Silver fell 8 cents from $15.50 to $15.42
having hit a high of $15.60 and a low of $15.25. In sterling terms, it closed at £11.86 that’s
up 4 pence and in Euros it closed at 13.33 euros that’s up 0.03 euros.
The Gold to Silver Ratio fell slightly from 78.90:1 to 78.66:1
The Dow Jones closed on Friday at 25,462 up 136 points on the day and up just 11 points
on the week; and the NASDAQ closed at 7,812 up 9 points on the day and up 75 points on
the week. Brent Crude fell $1.08 from $74.29 to $73.21
and US Light Crude fell 20 cents from $68.69 to $68.49
The dollar index stands at 95.16 that’s up 0.50 on the week.
Gold markets fell again last week but rebounded strongly on Friday as it was definitely heading
to breach below that $1200 level. However, the jobs report on Friday, though positive
was below economists predictions therefore suggesting that any further interest rate
rises may indeed be delayed a little, thereby strengthening the price of gold and silver.
Now some analysts believe that Friday formed a hammer – technically speaking – and therefore
could very well see gold rebound toward the $1250 level and beyond, and whilst we believe
this is possible, our analysis shows that there are still sufficient headwinds to push
the price lower over the coming 2 or so months. Now we have said for a while that gold below
$1200 represents good value for money, even though we also said last week that the worst-case
scenario for gold and silver prices was a 10% fall and best case 10% rise for the duration
of this year. This suggests therefore that gold could indeed fall to around $1125 and
go as high as $1,375 – and we still hold to this – but frankly being 100% accurate
on peaks and troughs is, as we are sure you appreciate, an impossible task, especially
as so many factors can determine price outside the traditional supply and demand cycle. Interestingly
some analysts are now starting to look at $1,000 gold as a possibility, and whilst we
could not rule it out, if gold falls to this level we would certainly be heavy buyers ourselves.
Interestingly sub $1,000 is the price that investor Jim Rogers has said that he will
begin purchasing gold again and he has said this for at least the last 5 years as we are
aware. He certainly believes that gold could indeed fall to this level which is why he
is holding off from new purchases though he fully admits that he has not sold any of the
gold that he has purchased in the past. Silver markets followed gold broadly though
it is fair to say that recent movements have provided us with a firm floor and ceiling
between $15 and $15.60. If silver continues to vacillate within these bounds for a few
more weeks, then that will indeed prove positive for silver prices in the medium term. Of course,
any breakout above $15.70 will prove most positive and we could again enter $16 territory.
What we are watching closely is whether silver can actually breach below that $15 level.
If it does and holds then that would indeed be a strong bear sign though we are quite
confident that we shall not see $13 silver unless there is a pretty cataclysmic collapse
in world trade as monetary and speculative demand for silver is near to its lows for
a number of years and industrial demand currently stands at 60% of all demand, so this would
have to be seriously affected to witness any major fall in silver prices.
As we pointed out in our last weekly roundup that Wednesday and Friday were the important
days to watch and so it proved. The non-farm payrolls on Friday though increasing by 157,000
jobs was less than the 190,000 expected which is why the FED, in our opinion, did not try
to sneak a naughty interest rate rise in on Wednesday – as their analysis and co-operation
with other Government Departments would have given them a heads up on the Friday figures.
So what is likely to affect prices this coming week? Well on:
• Monday we have the survey of consumer expectations for July
• Tuesday the Consumer credit figures for June
• Thursday the producer price Index for July (giving us an indication of cost push
inflation) • Friday the Consumer Price Index, and core
CPI for July. We are not expecting any of this data to have
a profound effect on either the dollar or gold and silver prices. We may see a further
weakening of the dollar because of Friday’s figures and therefore slightly higher gold
and silver prices, but we also expect this to be short lived as markets are always looking
weeks ahead as opposed to what has just happened and still we see no reason for the dollar’s
value to falter. Having said that we are acutely aware that President Trump is becoming more
and more anxious concerning the Mueller affair especially as Manafort’s case has begun
and Cohen is continuing to reveal more information. The Mueller team now having interviewed the
so called ‘Manhattan Madam’ who is known to be close to Roger Stone does in our opinion
bring his indictment, that’s Stone’s indictment, ever nearer and this political turmoil can
indeed have an effect on the dollar value and precious metal prices albeit short term.
On the positive economic front, the economy seems to be going well and if the trade tariff
issue can be overcome then cruelly this will prove negative for gold and silver prices
as to be frank we cannot foresee much further improvement in the industrial demand for silver
on the horizon, as it already stands at just above 60% of total demand, and so the only
fuel to push these prices higher short term, is either political turmoil, military action,
economic distress or our proverbial black swan.
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Disclaimer: Illuminati Silver owners come from a background
of Banking, International Wealth Management and Economics. Having now retired from these
worlds we are not qualified to give investment advice. Therefore, this and other productions
must not be deemed to be giving such advice and merely represent the personal views of