Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Friday 30th September 2016 and we
are providing our views on the future direction of gold prices for the remainder of the year.
In Part 1we covered those influencing factors such as;
1. Fear of a Global Crisis 2. Inflation and currency devaluation
3. Value of the U.S. Dollar 4. Interest Rates and Negative Interest rates.
5. Central Bank Instability 6. Government Reserves
7. Jewellery and Industry In this part we are going to provide our forecast
price predictions based on those factors plus a few others. Before we do that it’s worth
quoting Mark Bristow, South African-born founder and chief executive of Randgold Resources
as he foresees a looming supply problem in the gold industry, saying that there was not
enough exploration to replace gold that was being produced.
“To keep the gold industry supplied we need to discover 90 million ounces a year. We are
only discovering 10 million to 15 million ounces a year. We either have to discover
more quality ounces or reduce the life of mines.”
According to the World Gold Council; Total supply increased by 10% year-on-year
in Q2, to 1,144.6t vs. 1,041.7t in Q2 2015. First half supply is just 1% higher year-on-year,
the slowest rate of H1 growth for 8 years. The main contributors to this growth have
been recycling and hedging, both of which have been supported by higher gold prices.
So providing demand for Gold continues or strengthens, then potential supply shortages
will undoubtedly have a positive effect on gold.
So let’s look again at demand as quoted by the World Gold Council:
“Continued growth in Q2 2016 (+15%) brought total H1 gold demand to 2,335t – the second
highest first half on record. Huge ETF inflows during the first six months (+579t) were counterbalanced
by anaemic jewellery demand in an environment of sharply rising prices. In fact, the gold
price posted the strongest H1 performance (+25%) for more than 35 years.
Record H1 investment demand of 1,063.9t was 16% higher than the previous H1 high from
2009. Investment was the largest component of gold demand for two consecutive quarters
(Q1 and Q2) – the first time this has ever happened.”
So we can see, that the main driver for gold is currently investment demand as we mentioned
in Part 1. But can this continue? Well according to Henry To a contributor to
Forbes.com (a site we know many of our subscribers are critical of being perhaps beholding to
the Establishment), he thinks gold is now in a New Bull Market as indicated in his article
dated 1st July 2016. He gives 3 main reasons for this:
1. Global gold mining production has plateaued despite the recent bounce in gold prices
2. Both the Global Monetary and Fiscal Policy Outlooks Remain Highly Expansionary
3. Chinese and Indian demand for gold will continue to rise
His recommendation at the conclusion of the article:
“I thus believe gold remains a solid, long-term investment and the time to buy gold is now.
I anticipate a gold price of $2,000 an ounce by 2020”
Now we all know that this price point may disappoint many listeners and subscribers
to our channel. After all we are constantly being fed by the Pumpers that gold is going
to $10,000 any time soon. So $2,000 in 3 years seems paltry in comparison.
As gold continues to rally in 2016, one of Wall Street’s most closely followed commodities
watchers says we could be in the early days of a historic rally for the precious metal.
Bestselling author and economist Jim Rickards explained that, given the consistency of a
financial panic every 10 years, investors should brace for another disaster in 2018.
Yet, this time around, Rickards believes that it’s the U.S. government itself that may
trigger the next crisis. However, the catalyst for gold’s gains could
stem from a nerve-wracking sequence of events. “We should expect the next global financial
panic soon,” said Jim Rickards on CNBC’s “Futures Now”. On 12 Jun 2016 “We have imploded twice
in the last 16 years so get ready for the third one.”
His latest book, “The New Case for Gold,” defends the rationale that gold always has
been, and always will be, a true safe haven during volatile times. He therefore urges
investors to think of the commodity as insurance, not an investment.
“In 2018, who’s going to bail out the Central Banks?” asked Rickards. “The bailout money
is going to come from the IMF [International Monetary Fund] as they have the only clean
balance sheet left.” He adds. This occurrence, Rickards believes, will drive
gold higher—to $10,000, to be exact. That eye-popping sum “is not a made up number,”
Rickards insisted. “It is the implied non-deflationary price,” he reasoned. He does admit however
that the economy will have to implode for this happen, but pointed out that this has
happened twice in the last 16 years, and the only people who can bail out the FED and Central
Banks is the IMF. But what if the economy does not implode – not
all economists agree that it’s a certainty, and this is a factor we are going to raise
in a future video. However what about 2016 we hear you ask? Well,
for us there are 3 potential significant impacts: 1. China’s currency becoming part of the
SDR – which will have a small possible uplift for gold prices short term but no dramatic
move for 2016 2. The FED and interest rates; well we believe
the FED will raise rates once by either 0.125% or 0.25% again to save face by December. This
will probably have no impact on prices unless of course they state that the economy is so
robust that more will follow shortly – which is unlikely. If it does not raise rates at
all, we can probably add $50 to current prices. 3. The Presidential Election. If Trump wins
we believe gold will almost immediately rise by $100 – $200 an oz because of uncertainty.
If he loses it will maintain the then current level.
So fully acknowledging that supply is tight, and investor demand is high and that Trump
does not win the election and the Fed does raise rates, we see gold ending the year around
the $1400 mark. If Trump does win and the Fed does not raise rates then we can see gold
edge towards the $1550 level. Either way, we see it higher than it is today standing
at $1321. At the start of this video we mentioned that
Mark Bristow of Rand Gold pointed out supply issues. He also added this comment:
“The only way that the industry will deliver what it has delivered in the past 8 months
is to have another increase in the gold price, but it will be impossible for the gold price
to go up as it did over the past 8 months,” thereby saying that it is impossible for gold
to rise another 25% or so from current levels this year. If that were to happen, gold would
stand at $1650 and like him we do not see that figure being reached in 2016.
Of course if there is an economic implosion then all bets are off. Even without it though,
we are bullish gold at current levels We hope you have found this video interesting
and informative and if so, please give it a thumb up and share it on twitter. Also kindly
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is updated daily can be found at facebook.com/illuminatisilver Disclaimer: Illuminati Silver owners come from a background
of Banking, International Wealth Management and Economics. Having now retired from these
worlds we are not qualified to give investment advice. Therefore, this and other productions
must not be deemed to be giving such advice and merely represent the personal views of