Nate Silver Dismantled by Cenk Uygur

Nate Silver Dismantled by Cenk Uygur


>>Nate Silver attacked us the other day,
but that’s fun, okay. And he actually was a little over the top
to say the least, I’m not at all offended by it other people might be. In fact, I’m fairly amused by it. It was like he was trying to thump us or something
like I’ll show the bully or I will find out who the bully is. We’ll find out who’s right, but he was full
of vigor, let’s put it that way. Okay, here, I’m gonna let you judge for yourself,
so he talked about it on his podcast. Not only that, he later tweeted it, the quote
you’re about to hear. So he wasn’t playing, he wanted to get our
attention, here’s what he said.>>Let’s start with the basics Nate, what
does it mean when you see N/A among a particular demographic group and a polls cross tabs?>>Well start with the basics, I mean, the
Young Turks are full of about this and I hope that people see that, and then they open the
curious about why.>>Whoa neat, are you in my grill? Okay, Ben Mankiewicz, who I started the show
with once said to and actually, who was trying to beat me in a race, and she started out
fast, and she said I was trying to intimidate him in the beginning. And Ben said, you’re trying to intimidate
the Intimidator? Good luck Nate, okay, so now, let’s get the
substance of this. So we covered a CNN poll on the show just
last week and John gave the background. I’m gonna show you exactly what he said, to
show you that we are right and Nate is wrong. And there was different categories, age groups
was very normal in a poll and there was a representative sample in the older demographics. And though the demographics generally liked
Joe Biden. The younger demographics, they did not have
a representative sample, but they do actually use a multiplier on that and and so, Nate
explain that in this podcast. I’ll come back in a second, but it said any
is it not applicable, we explain that to our audience. That apparently is what said Nate and his
colleagues off, because if we did not do a good job of explaining that. Again, in a second when sure the video, so
you’ll have absolute proof that they are wrong, but first more chest thumping for Nate Silver.>>If you’re implying dear audience at your
expert in these areas and you’re just rolling about stuff. Then people’s willingness to be wrong, in
cases where it’s relatively easy to determine kind of objectively quote, unquote, which
right and wrong, versus like, this next segment that we’ll have where I’m sure half will disagree
with my view on impeachment whatever else, that’s a lot more complicated. But like polls are relatively simple facts
and like the fact that people get those wrong ought to worry you about kind of how much
people are concerned about kind of like actually getting the story right.>>Mmm, I love that, thank you for that setup. So if you get things that are simple facts
about polling. Well, it does show you and maybe give you
concern about what their real biases, what their real concerns are, and especially, if
you’re an expert on a topic like Nate is an expert on polling, that’s why we have this
conversation. And so, by the way as you’ll see in a minute,
do I dislike Nate Silver? No, not at all, I actually think he’s significantly
better than the rest, but we’ll give you that context in a second. So but he wasn’t done yet, and I’ve got to
show you this, cuz this is where he explains why we got it wrong. So I want you to pay real close attention
to what he says we got wrong, because then I’m going to show you what he actually said. Let’s watch.>>If I were CNN, I’d probably say, you know
what? Because people make even more idiotic statements
if you list N/A and don’t understand the poll at all. And some people literally think that CNN just
didn’t even bother to poll anyone under the age of 50, I’d probably list the estimates
for young voters with all the noise attached. So you’ve got the over the top statements
again, idiotic, earlier, he said full of crap. He said we’re just wrong, but if you notice
the substance of the attack was there. He said, when people say that they did not,
the poll did not count people under the age of 50 at all. Now, let’s go to the tape that he is referring
to, the segment he’s referring to. And there’s a Nate is so bias, they actually
played this clip on their own podcast, and then he’s like he didn’t hear what he didn’t
wanna hear. So listen to what John Iadarola says in this
setup and listen to whether he says, they did actually count people under the age of
50. Watch.>>Well, you will loss immediately is that
s you go down that’s a lot bunch of candidates. There is a lot of N/As and the N/As are in
the category of people between 18 and 34, and 35 to 49. Now, a lot of people notice that relatively
quickly, now, that does not mean that they did not have any respondents in those age
ranges they did, it just means that they’re weren’t enough for them to consider it to
be a sort of representative sample for opinions held by those people. There’s just not enough of them and overall,
it means that the results overall are gonna be a good bit biased. Because what you are really polling in actuality
are not people, it’s the oldest aged groups in America. And is it a shock that they might prefer Joe
Biden over some of the other candidates? And again, it doesn’t mean by itself that
he did not experience some sort of bump or that that bump might not be sustainable. They might not find it in other places. But the headlines never said, Joe Biden gets
big bump from poll of septuagenarians. It says, Joe Biden big back this thing in
its ton.>>So John gave several important caveats
there, but the most important one is the one that Nate was addressing. He said, it’s not like they didn’t count young
people, they did. You saw it with your own eyes, John just said
that in the clip, Nate listens to that. Says, I don’t like the Young Turks, generally
don’t like progressives much. So I gonna ignore that he said that, I’m going
to not only pretend that he didn’t say it, I’m gonna go a whole 15 minutes and rant on
my podcast, and then I’m going to tweet that the Young Turks are full of crap, cuz I don’t
like them. So that’s the reality of Nate’s bias, so here
then on Twitter I said last night. We’ll be addressing Nate’s smear of us on
tomorrow’s show. Great irony in claiming we didn’t explain
a poll correctly, not true as you just saw with your own eyes. And then not correctly explaining what we
said. Nate when are you going to admit your establishment
bias? I’m gonna get back to that in a second. Then, of course, Kyle jumps in calculus, he’s
host of secular talks a giant show on YouTube and another platform. So you should check it out in this part of
the TYT network and he’s a little Brasher than I am, believe it or not. And he says hi data boy, and then referring
to me, and then you can see the full tweet there, but the headlines are all about how
Nate Silver got the Trump wrong during the Republican nomination. And so, Nate was, of course, upset about that. Now, he’s acknowledged that in the past, but
it still gets under his skin, and he tweeted this in response. He said, predictions are one thing. We’ve been doing this for a long time and
the track record shows we got things right more often than not. By the way, which is true, which is not to
say always, but facts are another. And you all ought to stop misinforming readers
about basic facts about polls. Nate, given what we just showed you, right
back at you, brother. And then finally, on this note, I wanted to
say look if, and I listen the rest in Nate’s podcast, if they’d come back with a critique
that was justified of factual. I would have said that’s interesting that’s
the interesting point, if they said no, the Young Turks didn’t say anything wrong. But I wish they would have added that, yes,
they do count the young people in our poll just like John said. But there’s also waiting system which makes
sure that even though they’re not a representative sample, that the at least trying to get it
to catch up to the other demographic groups which are properly represented. That would have been an interesting critique
of not what we said, but what we didn’t say[ Okay, that would have been fair, but that’s
not what he said. Because, again, he doesn’t like being wrong,
and he has been wrong. So in fact, did we even say like, you heard
John say there’s other polls. I went on to emphasize that more later in
the clip. I don’t know if he watched the whole clip. But if you’re gonna go out and tell the whole
world that somebody is full of crap, I think you do have an obligation not to watch. I’m not pulling a Sam Harris, you don’t have
to watch every video we’ve ever done in our lives. Otherwise you’re taking this out of context,
but at least finish that video and see if we gave further context. So in reality here’s what I said later in
that same segment, watch. There are other polls, like the poll that
we pointed out to CNN once got a massive issue as you can tell. But Biden is picking up steam, that makes
sense. He just announced, and he actually did a good
political strategy, with pointing out Charlottesville. Trump attacked him, that’s gonna lift up his
numbers. You can talk about that, and do it in a fair
way. I thought Warren’s policy proposals would
do well. I’ve been telling you for about a week on
the show, if not more. Their numbers will start to go up and they
have and that’s also shown in the same polls and she’s got up about three points. And now she’s a solidly in third place, so
that’s real and they do mention that as well and look at it. So I like it was a little worn a lot, I like
Bernie Sanders a lot. I told you if I like someone I’ll tell you,
there it is. And Bernie Sanders, for a while, looked like
he was gonna overtake Biden, and I thought that made sense politically, let alone what
I think about his policy. Now, he’s not in as commanding a second place
as I would’ve thought.>>Mm-hm.>>And I point that out, and it’s two different
hats. One is who do you think is right on the policy? And the other is what’s actually happening? What’s the reality on the ground? We thought Trump might win. We couldn’t stay in Trump but but we gave
you the actual numbers and talked about likely voters versus non. So it is, I had to confess it is frustrating. Where we say we’re homo-progressives, we clearly
label who we are, we talk honestly about our point of view. And then we actually analyze the numbers cuz
it’s our job to give you facts. And they call us biased, then they turn around
and have an actual bias where they put the numbers in a skewed perspective, to favor
their own candidates. And then when you point it out they get all
hurt, and emotional over it. Now remember I said that before Nate Silver
got all hurt and emotional about it, and then he went on to fulfill that prophecy nearly
perfectly. So thank you Nate, I appreciate it. So the reason sometimes progressives get agitated
is because the establishment is constantly demeaning towards progressives. Dismissive of people like Bernie Sanders,
Elizabeth Warren and their supporters. And when we point out facts, they get really
agitated. And we’re not doing it based on who we like
and don’t like, so for example when we show you Bernie Sanders, did better with independence
in Hillary Clinton in 2016. We didn’t say that cuz we made up the numbers,
those were real polls. But every planet on television who all of
them are worse that Nate, but would go on and say, no, my gut says Independence would
like a really corporate candidate like Hillary Clinton. Based on what? Right? No, the polling indicates Independence like
Bernie Sanders, but even Nate on issues especially when it came to Trump, but oftentimes when
it comes to Bernie Sanders ignores numbers that he doesn’t like. Or more accurately, that bother him that don’t
fit his narrative. And I don’t think that Nate even realizes
he has a narrative. He thinks, no, I’m just for, as Jay Rosen,
a great media critic from NYU says, the view from nowhere. I’m the objective guy that, what that does,
that privileges his point of view as the correct perspective. And that’s just not true. You have a perspective and it is not necessarily
the correct one. And it is so easy and lazy to say well the
conservatives are obviously biased and the progressives are obviously biased and they’re
both obviously wrong. Whereas, hey lucky me, my perspective, the
established one, the one that is in favor of the status quo and believes the status
quo is the correct one. No it is not and facts have shown that otherwise. Especially in the case of Trump. So he says that we do it based on our bias
and when we just do prognostication. I’m gonna show you a clip here from 2016,
when I criticized Nate for the first time. And you’ll notice, again, it’s tempered, and
it’s about the fact, and it’s about Donald Trump who I am not biased in favor of. The exact opposite, I loathe him. I think he is deeply incompetent. One of the dumbest guys alive. Enormously malicious. I don’t know that there is a critic of Donald
Trump in the country more than I am or harsher against Donald Trump than I am. But nonetheless, I saw the numbers because
while we’re honest about our perspective, we have to give you reality in terms of the
fact. So now watch this clip from 2016, keep in
mind these things, Nate Silver all the way in November 2015 had Donald Trump’s chance
of winning at six, winning the Republican nomination at 6%. When all the polling indicated he had a significant
lead. Now in October of that same year, a month
before Nate added a 6%. I said Donald Trump would win the Republican
nomination. Well, let me show you the clip from later
on in the process, now this is during the general election. But many months before election day, and I
explained the whole context of it back then, here watch. Nate Silver until this election cycle had
been known as fairly, excellent prognosis. Well, the other guys would say that was me. And I defended them throughout the 2012 election. Idiots like Joes Garbough who got in the air
and, God, Nate Silver polling is incorrect. My gut says, the American people would Mitt
Romney. Your gut isn’t worth squad, it doesn’t work
the squad in it. Nate Silver had numbers. Unfortunately, in this election cycle, Nate’s
lost track of the numbers. And he can’t see past his own bias. So he gave Trump a 2% chance nomination, which
was spectacularly wrong. Here, they say, but Silver pointed out that
Trump’s general election numbers have still remained consistent, where his primary voting
numbers have not. Now he says, in the primary it was hard to
predict cuz he’s going up and down. Actually he was fairly consistently number
one. That’s why back in June of 2015 I said he
was definitely gonna be in the top three. And then by October 2015, Before months before
the voting, I bet that he would win the nomination. Now what would I base that on, my gut, no
I’m not an idiot like a TV pundit. I funny enough, I based on the polls. I also based on how he was campaigning in
the mood of the country now you say in the general election though totally. Consistent numbers. Really? Let me show you the polling. Hillary Clinton versus Donald Trump. That’s real clear politics average of polls. Does that look consistent to you? Forget the left side of that. That’s in the primaries, they’re not head
to head, etc. But look starting around April. What the hell is consistant about those numbers? Hillary Clinton’s got a big lead. Donald Trump dips then he rises, then he rises
more, then he passes her and then he dips again. What part of that is consistant enough for
Nate Silver to say, nope that’s it, let’s wrap this election up. Hillary Clinton has an 80% chance to win. Wrong again Nate. And it did prove me to be wrong. But again, I wanna give a context here. Nate was better off than the New York Times
having the post and almost every other outlet. On election day the only people who were saying
that Trump is better chance of winning. The Nate Silver as far as I could tell on
the national scene was us. And that is why there’s plenty of famous videos
about that floating around on the Internet with lots of us, where Ben and I say Brace
for impact. And because Trump can really win this thing. But I remember Huffington Post had Hillary
Clinton’s chance of winning at 98.4%. And they said, no, that’s not true. His chance are higher, but not that high. And so he’s a little off there or significantly
off, but better than the rest. And that’s really important. But I wanna again, clarify the difference
between right wing critics, MSM critics of Nate Silver and us. The right wind doesn’t care about facts at
all. So they look at numbers of science and go,
science, no. My God, otherwise Donald Trump doesn’t believe
in numbers. Okay, I mean how do you have conversation
with people who don’t speak the same language? So by the way, don’t just learn English, learn
Math. So then you’ve got the mainstream media who
says, Nate’s a nerd and he’s just focusing on numbers. And my gut, my gut says I went to a cocktail
party, and all my millionaire friends said the tax cuts for the rich is really unpopular. The country’s really center right, and they
don’t like that. Or you could look at a poll, and it says 75%
of the country wants tax increases for the rich. But everybody on TV is rich. So they don’t look at that poll. Instead, they tell you the exact opposite
of what’s true, alternative facts. So their critique of Nate is easy to dismiss. Our critique, I think ,is less easy to dismiss. And that is maybe part of the reason why he’s
agitated. And do I know Nate Silver’s politics? Do I know who he’s gonna vote for? No, I have some clues, in the podcast, everyone
of them referred to progressives as they. And with a little dismissive tone in their
voice, like I mean, that’s what they believe. Those people on the left. And they would do false equivocation, and
say things like, they’re like the people on the right, really? We have lunatics on the right wing who don’t
even believe in climate change. They believe 99% of the world scientist got
together and created a conspiracy. And you should be locked in an insane asylum
if you believe that. Whereas we say, hey, perhaps you have a bias,
maybe you’re not even aware of. And he goes like you’re full of crap, you’re
just like Trump, come on. You see you are betraying your own biases. So what is his bias? Well, partly it’s things that are somewhat
understandable if you would ever open up and listen. He looks at the history of polling, but times
are different. And and so he has a thesis that the party
usually picks the winner. Well, that is true if you look at the past,
but that was before a populist wave came in, not just in America, but all across the world. So I thought Corbyn would do way better even
in fact, they said I thought he would win. That was an audacious comment when he was
down 24 points in the UK was six weeks left to go. As it turns out, he didn’t win and we acknowledge
when we don’t get it right, but he didn’t close the lead by about 20 points in 6 weeks,
which was stunning. And why? If you just looked at the polling ahead of
Corbyn’s election, you would’ve said hey, UK just voted for Brexit, which is right wing. So of course they’ll never go for Corbyn. That misunderstands the current political
dynamic all across the world. It isn’t left versus right, it’s populist
versus establishment. But Nate has not caught up to that and almost
no one in the mainstream media has caught up to that. So they look at and go, well, obviously the
guys who won before the guys with the Polish suits and the nice haircut and all the consultants
and the ones that the party favors and establishment favors are the ones more likely to win. And that is why he got Trump wrong, too. And he admits it so and to his credit, he
wrote an article later after all this, he said how I acted like a pundit and screwed
up on Donald Trump, and he gave details. He said unlike virtually every other forecast
we publish at FiveThirtyEight, including the primary and caucus projections I just mentioned,
our early estimates of Trump’s chances weren’t based on a statistical model. Instead they were what we subjective odds,
which is to say, educated guesses. But Nate that’s exactly what we were telling
you, but you were so hurt by that, that you lash out against us. I believe and, obviously, I could be bias
too, but the only ones giving you a legitimate critique that you might actually learn from. And I don’t want it to sound arrogant because
he’s still making the same mistakes. I give you one last quote, a part of his mea
culpa and you have to give him credit for the mea culpa. People on TV never bother apologizing when
they get it wrong and they get it wrong nine out of ten times. So he said, in other words, we were basically
acting like pundits, but attaching numbers to our estimates. And we succumbed to some of the same biases
that pundits often suffer, such as not changing our minds quickly enough in the face of new
evidence. See, Nate, that’s what we’re asking you to
do now. Without a model as a fortification, we found
ourselves rambling around the countryside like all other pundit-barbarians, randomly
setting fire to things. So that’s right. But Nate, you’re still not past it. And in fact, even in that same analysis, he
talked about Trump is a one-off. Why does he think that? Cuz everybody in Washington thinks that. Everybody in New York thinks that. No, no, we’re gonna get back to normal. Biden is gonna come in or Kamala Harris or
someone. This is just an aberration. We don’t see it in any of the rest of the
historical numbers for the last 20 years, etc. Yeah, that’s why if you were right about then
then Martin O’Malley would have given Hillary Clinton a run for money instead of Bernie
Sanders. Open your eyes. The country is in a populist mood both on
the right and the left. And progressives are deeply, deeply popular. And look at your own polling when you go policy
by policy. Medicare for all 70%, Social Security protecting
it is an 84%, raising taxes on the richest 76%. I can give you literally dozens of polls where
the country is not center left, it’s massively left. But even Nate Silver who should know better
and that’s why I criticize them in this context because we need you to get the numbers right. You’re not supposed to be like the other guys. Looks at the numbers and says, I don’t believe
my lying eyes. So these people on the left are range radical
extremists. I don’t ascribe those exact words from him
to Bernie Sanders, but you can feel that this thing in his writing, but more importantly
in his analysis. And if he doesn’t get it straight now, you’ll
get this election wrong too. And then he’ll have to write another Mia culpa. Well, I mean, nobody could have seen Bernie
Sanders coming. I mean, that’s impossible. Who would know? I did a video in 2013 saying Bernie Sanders
can beat Hillary Clinton. Why? Cuz I really love Bernie Sanders? No, because I’m telling you now based on both
the polling which I can see with a clear eye and yes other factors such as the feedback
we’re getting from the audience. And I know the bets you’d, of course, of course,
right? But you get a sense that people are angry,
they’re angry about wages. And so we predicted those things many years
ago. It’s not that we’re any smarter than anyone
else. It’s just that we actually care to listen
to people who are telling us those things whether they’re on the right, left, or middle. And so again, populism will rise. And if you counter with an establishment candidate,
you’ll be making the same exact mistake you made in 2016. And so repeating that mistake is exactly what
the mainstream media is doing, saying yeah, yeah. No, you see, Hillary Clinton lost. Why? Because she was in the establishment. No, no, because of Bernie Sanders. What? Bernie Sanders had a 12 point lead on election
day in 2016. Now, could that have been waddled down because
they would run ad against him, of course, of course. They always treat progresses as children. No, we’re arguably more sophisticated than
you. But what I do know is they would have to waddle
down at 12 point lead. It would have been incredibly difficult. We know Hillary lost, Bernie Sanders would
have had a significantly better chance of winning, and the same is true today if you
run Biden that’s the same as running Hillary and you’re gonna make that same mistake. Now I’m not describing those views to Nate
Silver, but when he looks at it from a perspective that he does, unfortunately I think that it
encourages and buttresses the mainstream media to go, yeah, that’s right of course. America doesn’t want to progressive, America’s
a center right country that’s why Biden reaching out to Mitch McConnell and Dick Cheney’s a
great idea. No, it is not a great idea. And as you will see in this primary season,
it will prove to be a very very bad idea. And Joe Biden will fade because that is not
where the Democratic party is. It’s also not where the country is. Last thing is, I’ve asked Nate Silver to come
on this show. I hope that he comes on and we have a good
conversation about it. It’s up to him if he wants to have an honest
conversation about it. But this is the reality, and this was a real
critique. And we weren’t the ones who made up facts. Unfortunately, on his podcast, he was the
one that made up facts about us. So who’s the biased one, Nate?

100 Comments

  1. Yeah Nate is passé. Every field of expertise needs new blood when the old paradigm stops yielding accurate predictions. This is true of any empirical science and is especially true for a soft science that aims to predict human behavior.

  2. The only think Keek dismantles are Fried Meat Mountain Pies and YouTube channels that regurgitate their cop hatred and inspire cop killers.

  3. Nate Silver the once and not present or future Wunderkind needs to be taken down at every opportunity. He's fully fallen prey (likely willingly/strategically $$$$) to the establishment as they've embraced him.

  4. "Cenk Dismantles Nate Silver" Title written by employee beholden to the person who writes his paycheck. Uh, Ok

  5. Another reason to distrust telephone polls–younger people are far less likely to pick up a random phone call, even when calling cell phones. So when you call 1000 random people when conducting a poll, the overwhelming majority will be older, and therefore establishment Democrats.

  6. Their is no correct perspective. Perspectives aren't facts, or even opinions, and everyone is entitled to their own, in fact everyone has a UNIQUE perspective. Every perspective is inherently limited, multiple perspectives combined give maximum insight. Greater insight leads to more accurate predictions.

  7. In short, intellectual Nate Silver decided to not include the <45 voters because there weren't enough of those in his samples. Fair enough but how about then recruiting many more <45 voters before you make your little polls. This is a disgrace. Lies, damned lies and statistics.

  8. Nate jumped the shark when he hired the spectacularly shitty Harry Enten, who pretty much got everything wrong, all the time. Even now that Enten is working for CNN, his stink still infests Nate.

  9. Nate Silver is still my go to poll guy. He gave Trump the best chance to win out of all the major polling projection companies. He nailed the 2018 midterms. 49 out of 50 states right in 2008. 50 out of 50 in 2012. I just wish he would become more Kirk and less Spock.

  10. What really bothered me about Nate Silver’s podcast was he used this as evidence that progressives are just as anti-science as the right. Misinterpreting the implications of a small sample size in a poll is nowhere near the same level as denying climate change which has an overwhelming scientific consensus. If Nate just corrected you guys without attacking you for ten minutes it would have been more genuine. But it seems to me like he was using this mistake as an excuse to go after you because he just doesn’t like you guys.

  11. How sorry does your life have to be to waste it being consumed by politics of the left or right? That’s a rhetorical question you can ask yourself as you get all frothy preparing your scathing response to someone who could not care less and will never read it.

  12. here's a super-obvious question – why the F did they release a poll that was missing proper representation from voters under 45? i'm a carpenter, if you hire me to build you a house and i do it perfectly except i leave the roof off (cos you know no one's perfect) is that gonna be cool with you?

  13. Just an example. My mother in law, over 70, was planing to vote for Sanders, but voted for Trump. Now she would vote for Sanders, maybe Tulsi or… Trump.

    Centrism just not an option anymore for many voters. Listen or lose.

  14. 1. The fact that you needed 25min for this is ridiculous. Congrats on stooping to his level.

    2. Still taking jabs at Sam Harris despite the fact that he was 100% right in your debate, he owned you, and you had to rely on smearing him and deliberately misrepresenting his views EVEN AFTER YOU SAT DOWN WITH HIM.

    Hold this L, fatty

  15. Impeach and/or imprison Donald (duck) Trump.
    Obstruction of Justice – ignored.
    Trump Tower – the Workers were never paid.
    Trump Casino – bankrupt
    Trump College – the students want their money back
    Trump Airline – never got off the ground
    FBI – Trump is terrified

  16. TYT/Cenk: Are you trying to be the next Ben Shapiro with this title/video? Cenk loves to make videos either proving he's right or defending the show… how bout some real content?

  17. 00:18 Where the hell did all that hair come from? As long as we're discussing dishonesty, I want this addressed ASAP!

  18. It is now established once and for all that 538 cannot be trusted because it has been absorbed by the Establishment …well, it was nice while it lasted …

  19. Omg your Bernie bias is showing!!!! What are you gonna do when that Bernie bubble burst and he doesn’t win the nomination based on data?! You guys are so in love with him it should be called the Bernie Show. Elizabeth Warren? Moved Too far to the right. Pete Buttigege (sp?) too establishment! This litmus test for president ! You’re just handing the Presidency to Trump. So instead of a progressive or some what progressive president, you’re gonna end up with something much much worst

  20. TYT reports on the same stories as all the rest TYT=CNN
    TYT has become the same BS news outfit as ALL the rest TYT=MSNBC
    TYT Spent two years telling us all how bad Hillary WAS TYT=FOX
    After TYT Received 20 Million Cenk cut all the staff TYT= greedy Capitalist POS .
    NOW TYT want's us to trust them again=never Gonna happen .
    Cenk's nephew is a dipshit who should not be on my screen .
    TYT was in the Bag for hillary all Along .
    TYT really didn't cover Bernie all That well either TYT is in part why we have TRUMP!

  21. Nate sucks, fivethirtyeight completely fumbled 2016. Mr. "polls are simple facts" keeps ignoring Bernie definitively and constantly getting 2nd place in polls behind biden

  22. A point you could have made, which you may have felt was self-explanatory, I don't know, is that it stands to reason the too-small-to-be-representative sample of younger people who answered their poll might agree at a disproportionate rate with the old fucks who answered in droves.

    I mean they may or may not, you don't want to just make assumptions like that, but possibilities like that are why you should avoid doing surveys with skewed sample sizes.

  23. I agree with most of what you said, and you should defend yourselves. But then you put an intentionally unflattering picture of him as the thumbnail of the video, undercutting all your complaints of his pettiness.

  24. According to the Young Turks, the only answer to Corporate Democrats and Crony Capitalism is….. Communism. Which by the way, you will always end up with corporate dictatorship. Just look at history. A power structure is fortified through Communist ideology. Whether that structure calls itself the Government, or a corporation is semantics.

  25. Its disingenuous for Nate Silver to call polls objective. It reveals a fundamental misunderstanding b/t intellectual honesty and observation. Just because a sample of 1,000 from one state at one time on one website say they PROMISE to vote for Clinton does not mean they WILL. Your FACT is the sample itself. Polls are no more predictive than conjecture.

  26. Crazy to think that in the US, social security, affordable education, medicare etc are considered "massively left" policies…

  27. That bitch Nate Silver said Biden and Bernie are the same because they're both white males 🤦🏻‍♂️

  28. Nate did seem oddly aggressive when he criticized TYT :/

    i basically listen to all of Nate's politics podcasts, so i was a bit disappointed that he handled it the way he did

  29. I used to really respect Nate. I have zero respect for him anymore. Nate is a corporate tool and has become a joke. Great video for setting him straight.

  30. The poll was poorly explained by John, then Nate went over the top in his criticism, thats life. Y'all both messed up.

  31. Wasn’t he the guy that said Hillary Clinton had a like 89% chance of winning on November 8th? What’d he get wrong there?

  32. I don't know why you're so happy Cenk you're as retarded and simple minded as Nate is. He was right about tyt and it's audience being full of shit.

  33. Please People listen to the full podcast.
    The Problem with John's Statement was that he didn't mention the multiplier that th epoll used for young People. The choices of the individual younger voters were multiplied so that it was as if as many Young People as people in other age groups had answered. John's whole criticism is bs, this poll did not only show Biden gigantically leading with old People but Overall.

  34. Saying you dismantled anyone on you’re own channel is the height of sycophancy and egotistical tackiness

    I have no idea who he is for the record

  35. You got offended when he called you guys idiots but then show a clip of you calling Scarborough an idiot. Ha ha. Do you know if Nate dislikes you guys? Stop putting words in people’s mouths.

  36. They will hate us (progressives/real left) until our policies take hold. Then they will say " I can't believe we didn't do these things sooner. We were barbaric"…..!!!

    Mark my words bitches!

  37. What Nate actually said was the added extra weight to thoes classes of people. He is actually correct on this this poll was not misleading.

  38. I think it’s funny that Cenk sits here and says that he isn’t guessing because he looks at polls. But aren’t there videos of Cenk and TYT throwing all of their eggs into the basket that said Clinton had like a 99% chance of winning in 2016? That turned out accurate

  39. Sorry to let "progressives" down but Biden will get nominated. Democrat party has superdelegates  problem. Bernie is not leading the poll and not well-liked in his own party.

  40. You guys are full of shit. People like Kyle bring people into the progressive way of thinking. You guys make people sick to their stomach with obvious bias. You guys push people further into Trumps corner.

  41. Silver should quit analyzing politics and just go with sports purely. He is looking to get his money no matter what. If it means trashing progressives, he'll so with no questions asked. He is a mouthpiece.

  42. This actually hilarious hahhaha, why these data boys are so afraid to pull the hard numbers and see how the age group are represented instead of N/A, what CNN poll shows is there are no people who vote that are under age of 50… that would be fine if it was REALITY!!!! the statistics show otherwise there are more Millennials and X gen voting then there are others age group.

  43. Genk is spot on about "narrative". I listen to 538 regularly and there are interesting insights but they, especially of late, have a patronizing tone regarding progressives and progressive candidates. I don't think they even realise it.

  44. Nate Silver’s brand 538 should NEVER recover. He proved in 2016 that he was an obvious Democratic establishment hack and nothing more than a data nerd who is totally out of touch with real people and real issues. He analyzes data the Hillary fed him and gave arbitrary predictions based on that data convinced that Hillary has a 70% chance of becoming President. He missed so many swing states that he would’ve been better off going heads and tails. He is to be completely disregarded and Cenk and TYT has exposed his obvious partisan bias one too many times.

  45. This sounds like a guy who's full of shit explaining how he's not full of shit. Like that character. That's him. Cenk.

  46. Cenk! It's gotta be sweet, them putting you out the front door, and you came back and bust in throught the back door!

  47. Statistician here.

    Some facts:

    1. Young, less politically active voters are under-represented in most polls compared to election day, so pollsters overweight their answers to reduce bias and adjust error bars accordingly.

    2. Since estimates for under-represented subgroups are imprecise, CNN displays N/A to avoid people over-interpreting them.

    What Nate Silver said:

    – TYT was wrong to insinuate that N/As make CNN polls somehow invalid or reflecting only old people's opinions (I agree, see point 1).

    – Maybe CNN shouldn't be paternalistic and display all results instead of N/A, even if they are imprecise (I agree too).

    My own take:

    – On the subject of polls Nate Silver is the professor and Cenk is the student. So Cenk, stop whining and just pay attention to what the professor is trying to teach you (and listen to the whole podcast, it was very interesting).

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