Nate Silver Explains Just How Bad Donald Trump’s Night Actually Was


>>Stephen: WELCOME BACK TO
THE LIVE SHOW. MY NEXT GUEST IS THE SEER OF
SEERS, SAGE OF SAGES, THE PROGNOSTICATOR OF
PROGNOSTICATORS, AND ELECTION PROPHET EXTRAORDINARY. PLEASE WELCOME NATE SILVER! ( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE )
COME ON UP. RIGHT HERE. RIGHT HERE. CAN CLOSE TO ME, PLEASE. ALL RIGHT, NATE, GOOD TO SEE YOU
AGAIN. ISN’T IT LOVELY HERE?>>YEAH.>>Stephen: NOW, EVERYBODY
KNOWS YOU. YOU ARE THE FOUNDER AND EDITOR
IN CHIEF OF fivethirtyeight.com. ( CHEERS AND APPLAUSE )
NOW, I’M GOING ON START WITH Aen QUESTION EVERYBODY ASKS YOU
EVERY TIME THEY SEE YOU: WHO WILL WIN?>>WELL, LET’S PUT IT LIKE THIS. SO CLINTON CAME IN WITH ABOUT A
SEVEN-POINT LEAD.>>Stephen: TONIGHT.>>BEFORE THE DEBATE, AND THE
POLLS SHOWED AND THE SCIENTIFIC POLLS– AND THE UNSCIENTIFIC
POLLS SHOWED CLINTON WINNING THE DEBATE. IT’S AS THOUGH SHE WAS READY IN
THE FOOTBALL GAME AND TRUMP THREW A PICK-SIX. SO IT’S NOT LOOKING TOO GOOD FOR
DONALD J.TRUMP.>>Stephen: HERE’S THE THING–
YOU HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY ACCURATE OVER THE LAST FEW
ELECTIONS WITH ONE EXCEPTION, WITH ONE CANDIDATE. WHO IS THE CANDIDATE YOU GOT
WRONG?>>WE EVOLVED. WE WERE SKEPTICAL.>>Stephen: WHO DID YOU GET
WRONG. WHAT WAS HIS NAME?>>DONALD J. TRUMP.>>Stephen: WHY DID YOU GET
HIM WRONG?>>WE HAD SILLY IDEAS AND DIDN’T
LOOK AT THE POLLS. THE POLLS WERE PRETTY ACCURATE
IN THE G.O.P. PRIMARY AND HAD HIM AHEAD THE WHOLE WAY. A COUPLE OF STATES LIKE IOWA
WHERE HE WAS SUPPOSED TO WIN HE DIDN’T. THE PROBLEM IS RIGHT NOW HE HAS
ONLY ABOUT 38% OF THE VOTE. CLINTON HAS 45% OF THE VOTES. THERE ARE SOME UNDECIDEDS LEFT. I DON’T THINK HE DID A GOOD JOB
OF PERSUADING THEM TONIGHT.>>Stephen: WHO IS UNDECIDED? I THINK AT THIS POINT THOSE
PEOPLE DON’T NEED MORE INFORMATION. THEY NEED MORE MEDICATION. WHO IS UNDECIDED?>>THEY ARE PEOPLE WHO DON’T T
LIKE EITHER CANDIDATE. THERE IS A GUY NAMED EVAN
McMULLIN IN UTAH WHO IS LITERALLY SOMEONE NO ONE HEARD
OF AND HE IS LEADING IN POLLS IN UTAH BECAUSE UTAH IS WEIRD AND
PEOPLE ARE SO FED UP WITH THE MAJOR CANDIDATES.>>Stephen: HE’S RUNNING FOR
CANDIDATE?>>YEAH.>>Stephen: WHAT’S HIS NAME.>>EVAN McMULLIN.>>Stephen: THERE IS A GUY I
NEVER HEARD OF WHO MIGHT WIN THE ELECERAL VOTE IN UTAH?>>LITERALLY, NOBODY HEARD OF
HIM UNTIL SEVEN DAYS AGO.>>Stephen: SEVEN DAYS AGO?>>I MEAN, YOU KNOW, HE MOVED
FROM 10% TO 31% IN THE POLLS IN THE SPAN OF ABOUT A WEEK.>>Stephen: WOW! OKAY. WHAT ARE THE ODDS THIS IS OVER
ON NOVEMBER 9? BECAUSE TRUMP SAYS, “YEAH, I’LL
LET YOU KNOW.”>>I MOON, PEOPLE– TRUMP HAS
OCCUPIED SO MUCH SPACE IN MY HEAD FOR A YEAR AND A HALF AND A
LOT OF AMERICANS’ HEADS, I KIND OF THINK I KNOW– I CAN’T SWEAR
BUT PEOPLE MIGHT HAVE A CERTAIN REACTION TO TELL HIM TO MAYBE BE
QUIET, TO SHUT UP AFTER NOVEMBER —
>>BUT HE DOESN’T GENERALLY RESPOND TO THOSE REQUESTS.>>PEOPLE ARE SO EXHAUSTED BY
THIS ELECTION, THOUGH, AND USUALLY– LOOK, EVEN AL GORE,
JOHN KERRY, MITT ROMNEY, WHO ALL LOST THE ELECTIONS BY RELATIVELY
NARROW MARGINS, PROBABLY NARROWER THAN TRUMP DID, THEY
STOOD DOWN AND PEOPLE DIDN’T WANT TO HEAR FROM THEM IN ANY
WAY BUT A GRACIOUS WAY. TRUMP HAS 35% OF THE COUNTRY
THAT WILL BELIEVE EVERYTHING HE SAYS. BUT PEOPLE DO GET SICK AND TIRED
OF HEARING THE SAME ACT AGAIN AND AGAIN AND AGAIN.>>Stephen: ARE THERE ANY
STATE OUT THERE THAT YOU’RE LOOKING AT, THAT ARE SORT OFI
SURPRISE, STORIES YOU WOULDN’T EXPECT TO A STATE-BY-STATE
BASIS?>>RIGHT NOW WE’RE LOOKING AT A
LOT OF TRADITIONALLY RED STATES LIKE TEXAS AND ARIZONA. THOSE STATES ARE ACTUALLY CLOSER
THAN PENNSYLVANIA OR COLORADO RIGHT NOW. IT’S WHAT HAPPENS WHEN YOU’RE
DOWN BY SEVEN POINT. IT KIND OF SWINGS PRETTY
UNIFORMLY. BELIEVE IT OR NOT, TRUMP IS
UNDERPERFORMING AMONG THE TRADITIONAL G.O.P. SUBURBAN
BASE. HE GETS SOME OF THEM, BUT IF YOU
ONLY GET 80% OF REPUBLICAN VOTERS IN A COUNTRY WHERE YOU
USUALLY GET 92%, THEN THAT MEANS YOU CAN LOSE A STATE LIKE
ARIZONA, FOR EXAMPLE.>>Stephen: ALL RIGHT, WELL,
THANKS FOR GIVING US THE0 INFORMATION. WE’LL SEE WHAT HAPPENS NOVEMBER
8. THANKS ARE THE INFORMATION. FOR MORE ELECTION COVERAGE,
VISIT fivethirtyeight.com. NATE SILVER, EVERYBODY! WE’LL BE RIGHT BACK.

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