Silver and Gold Price Plunge – an Explanation

Silver and Gold Price Plunge – an Explanation


Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Thursday 16th August 2018 and we
are continuing with our comments as to why gold and silver prices have crashed this week.
We pointed out yesterday that gold fell to $1187 and silver to $14.89 and pointed out
that while we thought there may be a temporary rise, the trend would be still down. Well
in the last 24 hours we have seen gold dip as low as $1161 and has recovered slightly
to $1176 and silver dipped to $14.37 and it too has recovered slightly to $14.68 but both
levels are lower than they were when we reported. Since then there have been many comments by
subscribers and we shall attempt to deal with as many as we can, but we are a little disheartened
by the few who still claim – ‘ah this is manipulation’ – its JP Morgan rigging
the system. Our answer to this is an emphatic NO ITS NOT!
Now whether you believe us or not frankly in the overall scheme of things really doesn’t
matter – the world wont change if you believe us and it wont change if you don’t. But
something many of our supporters acknowledge, and certainly those who have been with us
from the beginning is that bearing in mind how many predictions we give, we are seldom
wrong, and when we are its by a very small margin.
Yet what we cannot understand and probably never will, is that these people or in some
cases conspiracy theorists will follow the likes of David Morgan who has over the past
10 years consistently got his forecasts wrong by many tens of percent, the likes of Mike
Maloney and Jim Rickards who have persistently quoted $100,000 gold and around $600 silver
and Bix Weir – the most outlandish of them all giving his, what we call ‘prediction
while high on juice’ $100,000 silver – and these guys have many tens of thousands of
followers and subscribers and they so far have probably only ever been right once in
their entire public lives. Now we accept that some of them produce much more fancy videos
and charts than we do – but we are old school who have always thought that the quality of
the advice was more important than the presentation – but we are rapidly reaching the conclusion
that we are wrong. Anyway, enough of our self -indulgent rant,
the reason that our predictions or forecasts are usually accurate is not that we have a
crystal ball – if we did, frankly we would look up the next lottery numbers, win the
jackpot, and spend the rest of our time on an utopian beach somewhere, or cruise permanently
around the world and probably never look at YouTube – though perhaps we may have a sneak
peek now and again. The reasons we are generally on the button
so to speak are as follows: 1. We don’t allow our emotions or prejudices
to dictate our conclusions or cloud our judgement 2. We look at both technical analysis and
fundamental analysis 3. We factor in geopolitical as well as local
political factors 4. We have a long background both in banking
and economics and so understand to a considerable depth how Central Banks, Treasuries and the
Investment community works 5. We quote the opposite of Mike Maloney or
David Morgan – no only kidding with that one – and (5) because we also look at trends;
economic, social, technological and competitive. So, going back to the purpose of this video
why have gold and silver prices crashed? Well yesterday we said primarily it was the strength
of the US Dollar. We still hold to this. However, its not just that alone, and in any case why
has the US Dollar risen so sharply? Well 3 words: Turkey, Argentina and China.
OK we attempt to keep our videos as close to 10 minutes as possible, and not to over
complicate them so here is a very brief synopsis: 1. The Turkish economy is in a mess and its
currency the Lira is in freefall. Its inflation rate is reported to be 101% and President
Erdogan is unwilling to raise interest rates. In fact, he told his people to sell US dollars
and their gold to support the lira. Meanwhile the US has increased tariffs on Turkey therefore
plunging their economy into an even greater mess.
2. Argentina has just raised its interest rates to 40%. The Central Bank has raised
interest rates for the third time in eight days as the country’s currency, the peso,
continues to fall sharply. The after effects of the 2008 world economic
recession resulted in the US adopting a major quantitative easing Programme. Much of this
money went into assets which are now bubbling, e.g. the Equity market, bonds and to some
extent property. An additional repository for these monies were what are known as carry
trades. What this means is that an international speculator could borrow at lower interest
rates in one currency to invest at higher rates in another. This was certainly seen
in Argentina. In June 2017, the Argentine state was able to issue a 100-year bond of
$2.75bn USD. Countries such as Argentina and other so-called emerging markets became dependent
on this flow of foreign investments to avoid the crisis.
In other words, Argentina became dependent on cheap international credit. Argentina’s
budget deficit in 2015 stood at 5.4 percent of GDP, and external debt as a percentage
of GDP in Argentina increased from 25.5 percent in 2013 to 36.7 percent in 2017. The potentially
faltering world economy, and especially the slowdown in emerging markets have caused these
chickens to come home to roost. 3. China; China’s renminbi has been hit by
trade and economic woes, at 6.8 to the dollar, its at the weakest level in a year, reflecting
slower growth and tighter credit. On the surface, China’s economy moving along
smoothly. The Chinese government recently reported that the economy grew 6.7% in the
three months that ended in June compared with a year ago. That is pretty close to the rate
that China has reported quarter after quarter over the past two and a half years. The pace
puts it comfortably within its target of achieving growth of around 6.5% for the full year. Those
figures belie warning signs elsewhere. More detailed data show weakening investment in
infrastructure and less exuberant spending by China’s consumers. Private businesses
complain that government efforts to tame debt have made it hard for them to borrow money.
A tiny but growing number of Chinese companies have defaulted on their loans. The currency
has lost some of its value. Chinese stocks are in bear market territory.
To add to its woes, The United States has started a trade conflict with China, and by
this autumn it could widen the conflict by hitting another $200 billion in Chinese goods
with tariffs. While the Chinese have made progress diversifying their economy, the country
still relies heavily on making and exporting toys, clothes, car parts and other goods to
the United States and elsewhere. So, these 3 factors alone, notwithstanding
other factors which play normally have been the main cause for the rise in the dollar.
How? Because people involved with these currencies have been moving out, and into the US Dollar
– which for now is seen as a ‘safe haven’. This consequentially has had its effect on
the gold and silver price. Now we haven’t even factored in the fact
that should world economies falter, and especially China’s. the monies available to buy silver
for production will fall and so demand for silver will fall and the available monies
available to purchase gold for investment purposes, especially by the general public
will also decline. We then begin to enter into Harry Dent territory of $800 or even
$600 gold and $5 silver. Now whilst we do not believe from our analysis
that things will get this bad, we have to factor that possibility in and this is why
we have been pessimistic on both gold and silver for some time – as we follow these
factors. Notwithstanding this it does look as if China and America will come to the table
at some early stage and sort out these tariffs, but if they do not, then this could have quite
a profound effect on the World economy. There is another important factor to bear
in mind and this is one we, as ex bankers, are particularly focussed on. The FED has
now technically stopped its quantitative easing and has begun raising interest rates and is
providing a very tight monetary policy regime.. This is inhibiting the availability of credit
in the economy and is squeezing the potential for further economic growth. We have a situation
where M4 a measurement of money supply is around 4.8% and GDP is around 4% or slightly
over meaning inflation is close to just 1%. This suggests that monetary policy may in
fact be too tight. This may however cause the FED not to raise interest rates until
December rather than the expected rise in September which could prove positive for gold
and silver in the Autumn, but as things stand, the pressure is still definitely downwards
for gold and silver prices. We thought we would share this with you, and
help you understand some of our assessment techniques and concerns.
We hope you have found this video interesting and informative and if so, please give it
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Disclaimer: Illuminati Silver owners come from a background
of Banking, International Wealth Management and Economics. Having now retired from these
worlds we are not qualified to give investment advice. Therefore, this and other productions
must not be deemed to be giving such advice and merely represent the personal views of
its owners.

100 Comments

  1. There’s no fundamentals,charts doesn’t work because the market is rigged and manipulated it is been approved. Gold is money end of the story.

  2. The fact that the price of silver and gold are priced in a paper derivative market and not actual supply and demand mandates a controlled market. Especially when the entire years production can be sold in an hour.

  3. Understand, the power-whores have had several hundred years to figure out how to lock out the oldest currency of true value (precious metals) while not having much more than a blurry recognition of cryptos. Get a good computer with proper router/software/VPN and start partaking in the future economy.

  4. Hello IS ,
    A bit salty in the beginning, but overall a nice job of assessing the current conditions under this system.

  5. 800 dollar gold, yikes. If I knew that was going to happen I would dump my gold now and buy again lower. I don't have the option to wait 20 years in my case for it to come up to current values again. I didn't buy to make money but it looks like I will end up losing money. That is the chance with any investment. Thanks for your excellent videos. Your channel is the one I consider the most reliable.

  6. Another big BS just play the card – take away paper derivatives in the market and let see the real price – just self advertisement.

  7. Love the rant! Well overdue in my opinion, those pumpers drive me nuts! Especially David Moron who calls a bottom every week , thanks.

  8. You guys will get a greater following …you have sound advice ,calm and collected .. i for one appreciate your excellent efforts ! Cheers

  9. I think the dollar has room to strengthen further yet but eventually this could lead to an over correction. With the emerging markets' dollar denominated debts becoming increasingly expensive, surely the only way to cover them would be to sell more of the one asset they hold which is keeping up with the price of the debt – US Treasuries. This would send the dollar the other way and emerging markets would be an attractive investment again (just an idea, I'm not bias, I have exposure to US treasuries and they are doing a good job for me at the moment!). Whether this would send metal prices up to any great extent I don't know. The only strong correlation gold and silver have with anything is fear. So they need a global crisis, not an emerging market one, and this always happens sooner or later! Whether short term prices are up or down doesn't matter, eventually they will provide some capital preservation when needed.

  10. I really like your multi-angle commentaries so I will ask a question: I am confused on your comments about the reduction of liquidity due to recession to be bearish for gold/silver. In a world with only long positions that will most certainly be true but as I understand it currently we have record high short interest in both gold and silver, so when the time comes that the large investors have to close positions due to lack of liquidity they will be liquidating short positions which should increase the price. I would appreciate a comment if I am right or wrong and where I am wrong. Thanks and keep the good work.

  11. While I believe that you deserve a much larger subscriber base, the unfortunate truth is that people are attracted to channels that say the things they want to hear. Make no mistake, I would love to see $10k gold, but the sad reality is that you are most likely correct again about the immediate future. Please keep up the good work.

  12. Hahaha lottery jackpot fantasy was cool. I enjoy Maloney's documentary series, gotta admit theyre done well. are you guys using a voice over or is this a real accent.? Lol

  13. The Chinese yuan has fallen 8% to the US dollar in the last 90 days. Nobody is talking about this. Loss of value in the Chinese yuan results in lower cost of Chinese goods in dollar terms. Is the Chinese government purposely devaluing its currency in response to proposed tariffs that are coming down the pipe, so that Chinese manufacturers can still be competitive on the world stage despite the additional Tariffs?

  14. Please keep up the good work. As regards your detractors, if they don't agree, but can give no reasoned argument as to why you are wide of the mark, they are at liberty to exercise their freedom and sod off.

  15. I believe that one bullion bank has already admitted that they have managed silver prices. This is silver and gold confiscation just like when it happened in 1933 with FDR's executive order. Gold is being suppressed as a way to confiscate silver and gold from the weak hands. All trends are hind-sight. If you don't think that naked shorting exists in the bullion market and that Comex does not have to deliver its gold and silver but can instead cash out its contracts, then you need to do more research. All assets are up, way up in the last five years except for gold and silver. So really, you are making things up. As long as you predict that the price of gold and silver will go up a little or go down a lot, then you will always predict well until the powers that be decided to let the price of gold and silver move freely.

  16. China also buy unrefined silver & gold from countries like Cambodia, Thailand, & other Asia countries, they have actually cornered the market, in exchange to be involved with the growth in those central Asian countries, also raw gems or even cut gems are sold to China , America never thought of those assets, no brave souls didn't have the guts or intelligence to pursue those valuable assets , especially in Cambodia, although you have to go along with those dictators in central Asian countries & there mafia style military & police ways of doing business., it could be done , with little or no backlash. Money talks . bull sh#t walks , right , that right in those countries., those countries actually prefer the American dollar over the yuan.
    So if there's any investors with some balls, contact me , I have people there I know & trust especially in Cambodia, but then they have connections in the surrounding countries too, its called networking, not to cut anything one off this channel, my offer will go to them first, I can buy low, we sell high, the only middle person we have to please is the mafia in each country who runs each country. But dictatorships work, very well matterfact, you just have to live in those countries to understand what I just said. Americans are looked at as gods, in these countries, untill you try to rip one off. Then you got problems, Asians are smart people, unlike the west, they want bite off the hand that feeds them. Plus the women are more committed, I think more beautiful than western women . sorry but one of you gals need to prove me wrong.

  17. 5 dollar silver does not make any sense and is a sensational claim as bad as the guys you blame for fake news. There is so much more money now in the system and even with that silver is now about as low as before the financial crisis hit us! Of course silver is extremely under valued! And more and more people are rediscovering silver for what it is, an amazing and rare precious metal that has a major intrinsic value. So do not lose faith, keep on stacking!

  18. NOT SO. He said inflation is 1 %. Time of video he said this is 12:45
    Food prices increases are far greater.
    Oil at about 1/2 half the all time and gas over $ 3/gallon.
    Inflation is well over 1 %. THUMPS DOWN

  19. Thanks for your great analysis , But the production cost of the PM's has got to come into the equation at some point in the political manipulations. If the prices falls any lower which as you suggest they might, mines will just pack up production. The present stock will soon be gobbled up at the knock down prices, then the reality of real world supply and demand kicks in.

  20. David Morgan, Jim Richards and Mike Maloney have lead me to a financial calamity to my peril. I will never listen to them again but the damage has been done to me as I followed their alleged wisdom. I have prescribed to you seeking better counsel.

  21. What the hell? I've listened to dozens of videos on this topic and never seen this channel before today. I had already decided to wait on the sidelines and watch the charts. But this commentary puts the icing on the cake. I believe in PMs as insurance against the coming debt implosion, but the charts look like hell right now. Igold Advisor also has a blunt video out this week. Anyway…. great content… SUBBED!!!

  22. Love the sophistication! I too would like to believe that there isn't any market manipulation going on… yes, the dollar's price definitely contributed to the recent decrease in gold and silver, but 4% silver decrease in one day? I don't think so. I do wonder why your channel is called, 'Illuminati Silver.' As far as I can tell so far, it actually does the opposite of validate what everyone with over 2 brain cells, hearing ears and seeing eyes should know already: that the central bankers and those who participate in luciferian fronts like the Illuminati have been in bed together for a long time, and they do whatever is necessary to keep their money changing schemes front and centre.

  23. Good analysis as always. I do miss the old microphone with the science fiction movie sound, though. I'm still buying silver in small monthly purchases, so I'm getting more bang for my buck. The premiums have come way down on old gold coins, so I might buy a quite a bit very soon, even though I'm not a very good market timer. I'm looking at a 10 to 20 year time frame before I would consider selling anything.

  24. The issue you take with Mike Maloney is that what he has said hasn’t come to pass… yet. The point is, they are going to be right. It’s only a matter of when. They are predicting on historical thousand year cycles. You are predicting on monthly and yearly cycles. It’s not that they are wrong, it’s that their analysis hasn’t yet come to pass. But it will, it has to, logic alone says it must, and with enough analysis of history and current monetary systems says that without a doubt, every currency will eventually meet the same fate as the Mark in Weimar Germany. They have no choice. And as Mike Maloney says repeatedly, measuring precious metals in dollars or currency is a fools errand, what you really need to be measuring in is purchasing power. Gold could go to a trillion dollars an ounce in a dollar fiat currency system where the value of the dollar drops exponentially to virtually zero and thus a trillion dollar an ounce gold isn’t that unrealistic. You might disagree with them, but at least know the differences in what you are preaching.

  25. Availability of currency affects it's purchasing power, too much available paper, PM PRICES GO UP, to rake in devalued paper, then tighten Availability of paper, PM PRICES GO DOWN, to rake in PMs with previous gathered holdings of massive amounts of devalue paper. What a Brilliant Scam paper (currency) is! 🤠 Learning Curve! 😜

  26. You sound just like another Piers Morgan looking to acquire a US audience by saying whatever you think they want to hear. We need a weaker than stronger dollar. A strong dollar means our products cost too much to be afforded by currencies that are weaker than ours. That means our unemployment figures will rise because our manufacturing facilities will move to a country with weaker currency or they'll just shut their doors. Chinese and Russian currency is being backed by the their gold holdings and Saudi oil is now being sold to countries who want to purchase with gold. So, instead of having to purchase American dollars countries are buying Russian Rubles and Chinese Juan. Our Petrol Dollars (trillions of them) will soon be coming back into our economy which means the value of every dollar already in circulation will lose value and all Americans that have saved their US dollars will find their life savings have been lost to inflation (Zimbabwean). A loaf of bread will soon cost 20 dollars and will be sold by the slice. Gold is a hedge against inflation. When gold drops below 1100 dollars per oz. and silver drops below 10 dollars per oz, I'm buying much more of both. Those of you who don't believe this, do some of your own research or just keep listening to this Talking Turkey!!

  27. This guy doesn't want to tell you that no fiat currency has EVER lasted. The US dollar is not backed by anything except the confidence people give it. Once that confidence is lost, then people will see that all fiat currencies are nothing more than pieces of paper. Gold and silver have been "money" for the past 5000 years. For the past 4000 years, it took 12 to 15 ounces of silver to purchase one ounce of gold. Today, it takes 70 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. What happened? The bankers got involved by paying off legislators to make it legal for them to promote fractional reserve lending which by its nature is a rip off. Then bankers set up a central banking system (Federal Reserve) and made us believe that we owed them a portion of our income and they set up the IRS. Do some research!!!

  28. All that is good. You are not wrong. But if any of those bubbles start popping, the risks start to become systemic. The risk is that the developed economies start going the way of the EMs. It’s still worth holding 5%-10% of the portfolio in the PMs. I’m pretty sure in 5, max 10 years your PM holdings would have done their job.

  29. I agree, IS. Your assessment is likely the most correct I've heard. Although never subscribed to many of the newsletters / pundits you mention in this video, I find myself bombarded with their emails somehow. Rather surprised there are so many of them!

  30. US dollar is just temporarily strong. But look at the fundamentals, they argue for the opposite. China is enjoying the highest trade surplus in history and she improved every time I visited there. This is the current US $ hegemony trying hard to defend itself. Economic rules do not apply and mostly fail in this period. However, if you look at the long term, say 20-30 years,economic rules will win decisively. I feel that if I want to have short term gain, I’d better focus on something else. But If I want to keep some of my hard- earned purchasing power, I’d better buy some gold and silver, as much as I can afford.
    Whatever reasons mentioned in the video are just very short-term factors. They mostly might be true. But we won’t even remember in a year’s time, let alone in 20 or 30 years. Debt will crash the current system which has lasted nearly 50 years. How much longer can it last? I used this opportunity to add around cdn$20K gold and silver. I have been taken profit every spring since 2006 and just wait for the summer. This summer is particularly rewarding.

  31. I am not trying to defend gold/silver gurus ridiculed in this video since I do the same. However, among them I will side with Mike Maloney and David Morgan. Their prediction is for the long term, not day to day even year to year. They follow a logic which prevailed in human history for thousands of years. I am not willing to abandon common sense just because there is a counter intuitive move in the market regardless how long it will last. It will fail since human society can not push things to infinity, except stupidity off course.

  32. 5:05 what kind of moron sells his PM for a currency that’s in free fall? That’s the main reason you hold and bought the PM.

  33. Anyone that believes paper fiat currency is a good thing is just wrong trump is up 2 1/2 trillion on deficit in a year and half, by sept. 880 billion is
    From lost tax revenue due to tax cuts now if he gets the jobs which will take years that could be 880 billion could go away. But if we
    Go into a recession those numbers will skyrocket, which those numbers are added to our already out of control deficit. Inflation is the only
    Thing we have to look forward too, and more stagnant wages, real estate I believe is ready to be hit by crazy property Taxs to pay for retirements
    For judges, cops, road workers, teachers, and all the rest of government workers at the state level, so I ask you where the hell is there to go
    For a real store of wealth, the only thing I can think of is gold and silver and other metals, I know I may not be right but it’s where my wealth
    Will be. Because I believe, you have to make your own mind up but do the research and you decide where you want to park some of your
    Wealth. Have a nice day!

  34. Can I walk into a car dealership and buy a car with precious metals? Can I buy a house with precious metals? Can I buy groceries with precious metals? I’m hearing a lot of doomsday talk, which is nothing more than that, just talk. Precious metals are trending down, not even moving sideways.

  35. Central banks short 1/3 of world production at Comex, while also net accumulators, hummm I like a cheap price and I think the large banks do also, back up the truck!

  36. I think it’s nice that you try to save people from the pumpers. Could you perhaps make a video on other investment you think show long term growth. Thank you

  37. not sure how the silver market will be by end of year… only that I am buying! im getting my silver at these low prices and paying the lowest premiums I can find through 7ksilverinvestment.com  I highly recommend this route. its proven to me and I am earning extra cash while getting my silver, Best of luck to everyone with their investments!

  38. Silver is at a nice price… prob not for selling but for buying.. 😀 i picked up a junk bag of silver dollars. plus i keep buying my eagles. hoping to see silver under ten 😀

  39. Though I believe there is some manipulation at play, especially in the paper markets, I think the price movements are far much greater due to natural market forces such as the reasons you stated here. Great video. A well reasoned approach.

  40. I hate Gold and silver. Worse investment I have ever made. Would have been better off buying more stainless steel Rolex watches. I bought my Sea Dweller in 2014 for £3500. I can’t find one less than £6500 today. Apart from computer chips, everything else has risen in value due to inflation, Food, Heating, Water etc. Gold and silver are the only commodity that has dropped in price. But hey, don’t you dare say it’s manipulation! 😏

  41. Dear Illuminati, now you talk! Best video analysis perhaps in 2 years I followed your channel. Thank you and please continue giving your analysis in this more detailed and sophisticated way. Cool!

  42. As for that add at the beginning, I wouldn't use Jason Bond's service even if you paid me. He is a loud fast talking, who by those attributes I can only assume is scam artist like so many of the ass holes who use YouTube to attract naive viewers.

    All of the financial pundits you mentioned I have watched more than a few times each, but here you are denigrating them as mere pundits without a clue. AND, that "profound Affect on the economy" you mentioned is when we believe Gold and Silver will take off.

    Being a Brit, we don't expect you to know exactly what is going on in American politics, but we believe something is about to happen that will change your whole perspective of where precious metals will go.

  43. This guy sounds like an apologist for the manipulators. The name of the channel should give you a clue. He should also be careful not to break his arm while patting himself on the back.

  44. It's good if you live in the US…. Unlike me in Australia who doesn't benefit that much from a price drop as the Aussie dollar is falling as well… In saying that, selling may be better if the silver price goes up and the dollar stays low… I think…..🤔

  45. Look at stocks over the last 5 years…. That's why metals are so beaten down…. Big investors just load on gold when the market is too risky and they need a safe haven to park their cash… People have made bookoo bucks in the last 5 years over in stocks, obviously metals have been a shit investment over that same period… but at some point, metals will go up… question is where is the bottom?

  46. People! Wake up! These banks that run our country hide in plain sight. Please learn who the Federal reserve banks are. Learn fractional reserve banking. If there were a draft for war the wars would end tomm.

  47. According to a few great experts years ago,  they stated that once the fed started to raise interest rates, they would HAVE TO continue to raise them forever!

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