Silver demand down : Mine supply marginally up : Silver Institute Interim Report 2015

Silver demand down :  Mine supply marginally up :  Silver Institute Interim Report 2015


Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Tuesday 18th November 2015 and we
are covering the Silver Institutes 2015 Interim Silver Report produced by Thomson Reuters
GFMS which was released today. We shall deal with each aspect as the Report
does. Demand:
Weakening growth in China will continue to weigh on physical demand
• The growth seen in coin demand is not expected to repeat next year, at least to
the extent seen in 2015 • Jewelry fabrication is expected to recover,
but will largely hinge on consumption in China • The continued shift towards smaller mobile
devices and away from larger desktop computers will remain intact, weighing on electronics
demand growth in the medium term Supply:
It’s estimated that mine supply peaked in 2015 and will trend lower for the foreseeable
future • Supply from scrap is expected to stabilize
around 2015 levels in the medium term • The hedge book remains at low levels and
hedging is not forecast to return to the market in strength
• Government sales are not expected to be a feature of the market in the years ahead
• Declining total supply is expected to be a key driver of annual deficits in the
silver market going forward Price Outlook:
The slowdown in China’s economy has had a significant impact on silver offtake in
2015, a theme expected to persist in 2016, albeit to a lesser extent.
• While coin demand is expected to remain elevated in 2016, it may not hit fresh record
highs. • Mine supply is expected to decline in
the long run and 2016 will be the beginning of this protracted decline.
• Scrap levels are expected to stabilize. • Above ground stock levels are expected
to dwindle going forward, amid a shortfall of supply against physical demand. This will
provide support to prices in the long run. So what does this all mean? Well the Survey
predicts a 2015 silver physical deficit of 42.7 million oz, despite an envisaged mine
production increase of 0.3% over last year and total physical demand expecting to fall
by 2.5% in 2015 mainly driven by ‘consumer electronics miniaturization’ as well as
a weaker economy in China. The Institute forecasts average silver prices to stand at $15.51 for
the full calendar year an 18% decline from 2014.
So as we predicted over 6 months ago, mine supply is likely to be up albeit a small amount
in 2015 and physical demand down compared to 2014.
Interestingly the Report shows that above ground stocks exceed 2 billion ounces and
with a deficit of just 42.7 million, this is more than adequately catered for.
So what is our conclusion from this, providing of course the survey is accurate and we have
little reason to suggest that it isn’t. Well for a start it shows that there is absolutely
no ‘fundamental reason’ for prices to rise significantly for some time yet, and
short term a slight decline may still be envisaged especially if China’s demand continues to
weaken and the dollar gains additional strength. It is good news however for prices in the
medium to long term as the deficit continues and a number of uneconomic mines are ‘shaken
out’ of the Industry. What this reveals to us at any rate is what
we have been saying since we began this channel; based on fundamentals there is time for those
so minded, to continue to stack silver at a sensible pace, and not be harried by those
‘pumpers’ telling you it’s about to rise to $100 any time soon – black swans
materialising – excepted. We hope you have found this video helpful
and informative, and would appreciate it if you would give it a thumb up, comment and
if you haven’t already done so please subscribe. Please also share this video on twitter and
follow us at illuminatisilv1. Disclaimer: Silver Illuminati owners come from a background
of Banking, International Wealth Management and Economics. Having now retired from these
worlds we are not qualified to give investment advice. Therefore, this and other productions
must not be deemed to be giving such advice and merely represent the personal views of
its owners.

30 Comments

  1. great video – a combination of low consumption and high dollar is the driving force on valuations. Still convinced there is some shenanigans regarding silver & gold pricing. greg

  2. I love the ending of all these videos , "So What's This All Mean". There is nothing left for speculation, you spell it out in simple terms. Thumbs up !

  3. Thanks for another sensible and sober vid illuminati.    I like to buy silver very occasionally and keep it aside for a rainy day. I certainlydon't expect to cash it in this side of 5 – 10 years.   I do like the speculative side of it. The small amount I have I consider a hobby. All the best.

  4. So…. silver prices are set to go down, at least in the near future? The only question is how low. It can't go lower than mining cost, so safe to assume around $10 point something?

  5. Thanks for another sensible video. Glad to hear prices are not likely to rise too soon as this is a new hobby for me. I like to buy on a budget spread over time and am enjoying all the pretty coins. This is totally new for me as I didn't even know until September that new silver coins were a market. Guess I should get out of the cave more often, lol.

  6. hate reading deficits in ozs . http://www.platts.com/latest-news/metals/emea/silver-set-for-1328-mt-physical-deficit-in-2015-26281123?utm_campaign=energybulletin_metalssteel_email_111815%2cenergybulletin_allcommodity_email_111815&utm_medium=email%2cemail&utm_source=eloqua%2celoqua&elqcampaignid=12056

  7. I can't help but think that there are two factors affecting retail silver. The first, obviously, is the rise in premiums, which I think have suppressed sales slightly, at least until they normalize again. The second, even more obviously, is the retail supply has been hit hard, and many retailers have amazingly limited selections to pick from.

    Refiners and private mints are in the process of adding production capability, so hopefully, they won't get hit quite as hard by running out of blanks the next time sales spike, and losing sales volumes as a result.

    I see the potential for reduced retail sales (generally) to have a knock-on (rather, knock-down) effect in electronics manufacturing profits, which may turn into reduced projections for next year, which may in turn translate into lower manufacturing requirements…so this might be good for retail prices in the new year, assuming that you're on the buying end of the spectrum.

    As I expected, less than a week has gone by since the latest designed propaganda attack, and it's primarily the media who "wants us to feel bad" or "wants us to be afraid"…the general population has seen the same thing too many times…they're not phased this time. They probably won't be the next, either.

    The second that it was announced that "we were conducting drills at the very same time…of the exact same situations…" (dis time, yew say eet wit Fransche accent, no?) the game was up. 9/11…7/7…and now 11/13. The majority of people may not know what "The Hegelian Dialectic" is…but they're starting to at least know it when they see it.

    From "the Canadian front", I'm still annoyed that the currency wars (that almost nobody wants to acknowledge even exists) have forced the "perceived value" of our fiat debt notes so much lower that we're buying everything with a 25-35% premium attached…on top of higher market premiums…so I'll likely keep nickel-and-diming it for a while yet…stock has to be replenished and selection needs to expand first, anyway, to get more people interested.

    I guess we'll see what the new year holds? (You notice I say that as though we had some huge list of available alternatives to pick from? d;o)

  8. I think we can see $13 silver in 2016 …..as long as this deflationary cycle ensues. Silver Illumanti…if silver hit 413 a oz..will you be a big buyer..and if so, will you buy bars, generic coins , or maples/eagles ?

  9. Ack work had me away so I missed this yesterday. As you have guessed.. many of us are in fact glad to hear of the lower prices.. heck I might even buy some Eagles again! I was very eager when I saw Provident Selling rounds for sub $15 with shipping. I can't wait to dollar cost average my prices down.

    So for interest…. I bought 170 pounds of lead(2 years ago)… yes actually old wheel weights that have been turned into ~17 pound ingots. Of these, I have already cast 2 into lead bullets for my personal use. If I never sell an ingot I will be just fine… but what say IS on that most troubled of metals lead…The USA EPA has declared all out war on the metal.. banned from wheel weights, fishing lures, shot shells.. and soon all bullets. Will lead be the metal that no longer exists?

    PS: For those that do not know.. lead, silver and zinc are often complimentary in mining.

  10. Sounds like silver is at or near a bottom IMO. Perhaps dealer spreads for retail silver, e.g., coins, will be pressured donward a little more due to lack of demand as everybody focuses on the upcoming holidays. I would like to pick up some Maple Leafs but the spreads annoy me.

  11. I've heard this two billion oz. above ground stockpile number several times before. Do you know how this number is being derived? Seeing as how governments have pretty much divested themselves of silver over the past few decades, where are these large hoards totalling two billion ozs hiding? I see on the comex there is about 160 million ozs and I'm sure there are another few million in etf warehouses but where is the rest?

  12. Gallon of gas where I live $2.28…Silver quarter spot $2.57… has gone up in one way!..😊 Not backing up the truck…but like buying small amounts at this ratio.

  13. What I like about Illuminati Silver is when you have a question in the Comments area, he will actually take the time to respond to you.

  14. Hi Illuminati Silver, Are you still of the opinion that Silver could fall to $12 -$10. I ask this because of the ratio to Gold, if Gold falls to $900 that still only makes Silver a 64-1 ratio if Silver holds the $14 .

  15. BUY USD AT ANY PRICE! Don't listen to channels telling you the USD is topping… it will keep going forever! They aren't making any more of them! Get USD (sell silver and gold) immediately, you heard it here first!

  16. Great vid… Have you done any research on above ground stock piles… How many million oz are above ground? I can't seem to find a reliable answer ranging from 24 billion to 300 million oz – that number makes a big difference

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