Welcome to Illuminati Silver – we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Wednesday 29th July 2015 and we are
going to discuss briefly the Silver Institute’s 2015 First Half Report Press Release which
was issued yesterday. Now for the sake of clarity and so that we
cannot be accused of misrepresenting the Report, we attach a link to it below this video.
OK The Silver Institute headlines: “Upticks in Silver Demand Seen in First Half of 2015”.
In summary it states the following: • US imports of silver jewellery jumped
11% from January to May 2015 in dollar terms • Thailand imports were up 18.5%
• China imports up 14% • GFMS the precious metals consultancy,
estimates that global silver jewellery demand will grow 5% in 2015
• GFMS also predicts that Industrial applications will increase their demand for silver by 2%
• Solar panel producers are expected to increase demand by 8%
• Demand from ethylene oxide producers is forecast to increase by 61%
• Electronics demand expected to rise by 0.4%
• An expected 4.5% decline in demand by computer and tablet producers.
• Increase in demand envisaged by mobile phone shipments by 3%
• ETF Holdings increased this half year by 4.7 million ounces
• Bullion Coin sales fell by 6% compared to last year.
So the conclusion of the Silver Institute, now remember this is a forecast – is that
there will be a deficit of 57.7 million ounces of silver in 2015.
So we hear cheers from the ‘pumping’ fraternity – “we were right, silver demand exceeds
supply” – they shout – “the price is going to rocket.” Hold on! Hold on just
a minute. Let’s just bear some points in mind;
• Firstly the Silver Institute is more likely to be bullish bearing in mind its membership,
though on the side of balance we do rate highly their findings and views.
• Secondly, there are assumptions made on the supply side which are close to mining
historic growth patterns of 3%. We believe because of the pressure on prices, miners
will produce more to balance out cashflow, but we could of course be wrong
• Thirdly and more importantly, it is assessed, even by the silver bulls, that there is between
1billion and 2 billion ounces of above ground silver available to the market place. So even
if we were to take the lower figure of 1 billion ounces, to use up that amount of available
supply with a 57.7 million deficit, 17 years will have to pass.
So before we all jump up and down please just bear that in mind. The authoritative body
of the Silver Industry is forecasting a deficit of supply over demand of just 57.7 million
ounces, which can be catered for each and every year for the next 17 years at least.
Ah but we hear the critics say, “Physical demand for coins and bars will increase this
deficit further,” and do you know, they may be right. So let’s add another 100 million
ounces to the deficit equation, which will then push physical demand for investment higher
than it’s ever been before. Even then, in a worst case scenario, a minimum of 6 years
above ground silver supply exists, and you can bet if prices have started to move up
by then, then so mine production will also increase.
Back to the world of reality, however, the Silver Institute says and we quote: “In
the first half of the year, global bullion coin sales totalled 43.6 million ounces, 6
percent below levels seen in the same period a year ago.” Australia’s Perth Mint saw
its silver coins sales spike in June due to a more attractive silver price, though sales
overall are down 18% from the same period in 2014.”
So we ask you to draw your own conclusions, a bullish report YES. On track for a major
rise in the Silver price? Well in the words of the famous Francis Urquhart in House of
Cards : “You might very well think that; I couldn’t possibly comment”
We hope you have found this video at least interesting and informative, and would appreciate
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Silver Illuminati owners come from a background of Banking, International Wealth Management
and Economics. Having now retired from these worlds we are not qualified to give investment
advice. Therefore, this and other productions must not be deemed to be giving such advice
and merely represent the personal views of its owners.