The Current Case for Gold and Silver (w/ Greg Weldon)

The Current Case for Gold and Silver (w/ Greg Weldon)


Hi Greg welded here for a real vision and this is tech trader We’re gonna be discussing a big picture trade. We’re gonna break it down into a couple of different ways You might play it depending there but futures the Canada trade the equities ETFs, whatever your preference might be We’re going to give you some options on this one, but it is big picture We’re gonna come back at you here on real vision with more of the big picture theme as to exactly why Fundamentally, you need to be involved into precious metals. I mean, I wrote my book gold trading boot camp in 2006 We kind of hold, you know monetary Armageddon, which at that point was you know fed Monetizing a Treasury debt and printing money and having to bail out the consumer and someone and so forth stuff that was considered, you know Unthinkable at the time was not only thinkable it was done We see a similar situation developing here times ten like that situation on steroids a lot of differences admittedly, but a lot of Similarities the main one being if you have another wave of deflation risk Central banks are in a much weaker position here in terms of trying to do something about it But then that begets the question they always seem to have their backs against the wall and they come up with increasingly You know creative ways to print money and to stimulate the economies and to reflate to consumer and to avoid a debt deflation because it’ll cost that’s what central bank’s want to do right now is Avoid a debt deflation and they’re gonna be tested in the next 18 to 24 months really within the next three to five years like gold was at four and a quarter in 2006 very cheap tripling quadrupling in price same thing here. I would say gold at 1,300 here 1400 now is about as cheap as it was then at four and a quarter. We’re gonna talk about The market in terms of kind of the currency dynamic because this is really important It’s the ECB the central bank that is really on you know on the hot seat here sitting on the hot seat I mean they have negative 40 basis point of deposit right? You really they’re pricing in another cut to minus 20 The problem is you get more and more debt in Europe and with negative Nominal Gill’s and you’re basically having you know consumers investors and savers paying governments to hold their money This sucks money out of the equation. They can’t let this stand the ECB is discussing. What would be a unprecedented plan another revolutionary type of monetary situation That would be QE on steroids to deal with the deflation on steroids when you have economies that are really coming unglued Quickly and you are despite the fact that you have all these negative yields. It’s just not working. Something’s got to change Something’s got to give and it will and the ECB is gonna be at the forefront We’re watching the Euro and keeping in mind that what comes next Outside of why we feel so strongly about precious metals could change the entire dynamic for bond markets for currencies and for stock index futures So we got to keep all that in mind and you know looking at that you look at the Euro I mean kind of on the verge here yeah a little bit a rally in the Euro ran into overhead resistance right where it should have and now it’s threatening to break down again you Know when the ECB potentially makes, you know, another kind of stellar surprising pulls a rabbit out of the Hat monetary move You really could see some fireworks in New euro Frankly could be down first and then much higher even so we’ll keep an eye on all that and you kind of see the long-term picture I mean a move below 111 in a quarter would be really negative for the Euro would easily set up a test of the 103 to 104 level but really it comes down to gold because this is a situation where you know The euro is higher than the euro was lower the dollar was lowered and now it is higher and at the end of the day Gold is higher against all these currencies Because gold and the dollar link has broken down and now gold is where he wants to be in its sweet spot Appreciating against all paper currencies a rising concern about abilities of central banks to keep papering over these issues Rising mistrust and uncertainty around any paper any IOU. Io u–‘s currencies bonds. They’re both Are you use it’s the same thing backed by nothing and in the sense of gold and Euro breaking out It’s a long-term break out you can see this above 1237 euro now You know pretending a move here at the very least to test the all-time highs set in 2012. If not violate them Probably significantly. So at the same time the the dollar Has kind of bounced again off the two year moving average I mean boom there boom boom here and now and then again off the two year moving average and with this flattop of overhead resistance The problem here for the dollar is really when it comes down to the rate of change because right now, you know you’re one year two year rate of change is about four and a half if you get this thing to break out and you get Back up to 104, you know The rate of change is going to accelerate and particularly the longer-term rate of change the five year rate of change right now is threatening 20% and if you get above this ninety eight and a half level and you accelerate up through 104 that’s going to really extend the Appreciation of the dollar to the point where it starts to weigh on commodities it starts to bring emerging markets and currencies and bond markets and stock indexes back into the feds purvey as a Potential risk you have had five fed regional bank presidents in the last sixty days March out and they have all said the same phrase and that doesn’t happen unless it’s meant to happen and that phrase is they are concerned about the credibility of their inflation target and if that is true They cannot allow the dollar to break out because their inflation target is already somewhat You know being called into question With you know inflation 50 basis points below where they really want it to be and now all of a sudden because inflation is falling, you know They’re not just neutral. They’re actually tight They’re gonna have to cut rates just to stay neutral So that you know is interesting and Really the reason we’re if the dollar were to look like it was breaking out and whether this might even be a sign of some Dollar debt issue globally turkey comes to mind almost immediately That would be even more problematic because it would be on the Fed To be the one to act almost as the central banker to the world Which is I think a dynamic that is slowly kind of beginning to evolve here, too So in that case a dollar move up here would bring the Fed more aggressively into play And of course that would be positive for gold In terms of the room NIMBY of course, and we look at the three currencies euro dollar and mimmie But I mean again gold breaking out an Aussie dollar at record highs, you know breaking out against a lengthening list of currencies Okay. Now the room in me, I mean the room nippy had a rally here and then it’s had this big decline I’ll tell you what. I think the Chinese have played this trade situation Just very very well If their point here was we know we’re going to cut a deal But if we walk away from the table we can get some depreciation in our currency and no one’s going to say a word And that’s exactly what’s happened And when you get that depreciation and really it’s about kind of squelching the appreciation but if you look the appreciation of the renminbi Over the last 12 months had reached a new all-time high It was above 9% for a period of time on a rolling 12 month basis That’s problematic and in signing a trade deal then would have been equally problematic Now they’ve taken this kind of walk away plan and likely to come back to the bargaining table When they’re written in be kind of calm, you know, it’s depreciated to some degree The bigger question is can the renminbi depreciate through this 698 level? And you know, I think the answer to that longer term is yes But that means a higher dollar but this is really where you start not to care in terms of gold because gold Is rallying against all these currencies. Okay. The rain India is up. The renminbi is down. What is up and for short breaking out? It’s gold priced in Chinese renminbi and you see that here and you see that here on the long term basis Where it’s you know above this 9,000 a rim, maybe a per ounce level and basically now targeting it’s all record highs around 12,000 renminbi Now as it relates back to the dollar here is where it gets most interesting because the dollar has D linked from gold And more importantly gold has D linked from the dollar and we see that in the sense that the dollar is almost that new highs Here almost breaking out it’s appreciating 5% over the last two years when they’re in the same time if the correlations had held gold would be between 1050 and $1100 it’s not it’s 1,400 and it’s breaking out and when you look at the gold adjusted value of the dollar index Which is very simply the dollar index divided by goal No rocket science here, but very telling is kind of a gauge of monetary policy and you can see you know A Fed got a little too tight in here dollar in gold terms was rallying it is now reversed It’s on the verge of a major breakdown the longer-term trend to the upside violated retested and now revile ated and this tells us that the feds move here towards AB easing bias is you know, For real and they’re gonna you know, they’re gonna have to keep up with the timeline lay down the Fed Funds futures market But that’s a whole nother trade for another time bottom line Here is dollar Adjusted by gold is breaking down on a long-term basis and is now down almost ten percent on the 52-week basis That’s huge and very bullish in the backdrop. And we look at the long-term moving averages on the same dynamic You just crossed bearishly you want to talk tech trader. This is just pitiful stuff for long-term tech training You take the we have the two year five year and ten year moving averages of the gold adjusted value of the dollar and This just rolled over to where the two year moved back below the five year in May end of May So we’re talking five weeks ago major long-term Secular stuff doesn’t whip saw a lot now turning in favor of gold and against the dollar and again nice Yogi Berra would be proud It’s deja vu all over again You know bottom line is the dollar has been it is now and will be even more So in the future the relief elf, it’s just the way it is as the world’s reserve currency And now that the Fed was among a few central banks actually Created some room for themselves to cut rates by raising rates at opportunity ECB really missed in the beginning of 2018 you know leaves this to the Fed and I think that this is Really part and parcel of what’s happening in terms of gold breaking out despite the fact that the dollar is on the verge of its own breakout that couldn’t be more telling the long-term picture here is very bullish for gold from a technical structure when you’re talking about the Secular trends. All right this decline I remember the days we were tracking when gold was flirting with 10:50 and you had this level the 50% retracement from the 1976 low the entire run from $100 to almost $2,000, you know right around as you might suspect the 50% level was 10 50 How many days in a row on the candlestick chart on the daily candlestick? Did you have moved below the 50% retracement during the day and it closed above it? it was uncanny How many days that happened and watching the market every day and such a tell there’s demand for gold below 10:15 My guess would be the Chinese were some, you know eaten it up there And of course the statistics later on proved it was the Chinese that were buying they’re very astute traders So the long-term picture is then here’s her correction. You had ABC Fibonacci and you’re rolling back to the upside Well, this is basically one two, three, four, five. Typical Ilya wave dynamic one wave five has just been ignited You know, we talked about ignition and here we have liftoff in gold. So how do we want to play that? Well, if you’re not long any retracement down into this, I mean you guys you get below 1300 you get like a 1295 print It’s a kid from the gold gods. You’ve got to back the truck up in that case I don’t know that you’re gonna see that. I don’t think you’ll get much below 12 65 to 1260 if you get a dip, I mean because this is a longer term break down breakout I mean so you know 13 45 would be kind of a last guest on the downside and then frankly I mean you get below 1290 then we’re wrong and then 12 66 at risk, but I really don’t see that happening Not when I see stuff like this and here we get to the trade finally. Yes right to the trade. All right, the GDX gold-mining ETF really like this here. I mean it is now breaking out. Look at this pattern I mean, it makes new lows. This law was so unconcerned by any technical, you know, a momentum indicator You want to throw in you got the breakout you got the retest of the trendline that was violated I love this pattern 30 years in doing this I’m telling you It’s one of the most reliable patterns when you hit a Long-term trend breakout and it kind of seems like it’s running out of steam and it comes down It might even make a lower low, but it holds above the violated trendline That’s huge that retest on the back side particularly when it lays out right in the zone between the 50 and 61% Fibonacci retracements in the meantime you get back over the two year moving average Which is now accelerating to the upside and making a new high in Line with price a very bullish dynamic and this is long-term stuff man here Look at the 52 week and the two year moving averages crossing over here as well. Very bullish The GDX would be the trade here You know in the in terms of what trade we’re putting on here one of them GDX would be would be an option and Franco you just plow right in here because the risk reward is still quite favorable what I Love about this too is gotta have confirmation that the GDX could potentially outperform. That’s the whole reason for buying it And in this case the GDX breaking out against the price of gold. This is Huge not only in terms of this, you know from the micro standpoint of this trade but for the sector as a whole it’s something we have not seen since 2016 and we have a long-term Retest it on the back end love that pattern break out in gold GTX mining against the spot price and not only that there’s a bonus here and we said this a few weeks ago in one of our daily reports that This would set up to wherever you you would actually get some rotation in the next phase of fed. Moving towards an ease Within the stock market itself out of town and the high-flying tech. How does some of the top performers? you know over the last 10 years and into the precious metals mining shares and you’re seeing it because you’re on the verge of a Breakout in the GDX against the S&P 500 that would be massive Junior gold mining same thing looking at a breakout here a breakout here really confirming as of yesterday. We’re filming here on the 12th of July and you can see the action here on Thursday the 11th was very positive for the junior gold mining for the weekly chart to close above 30 504 that would be an option to I just like to straight GDX for now and In terms of then potentially, you know number the brave I mean you want a triple leverage and treat this like a call option be willing to basically risk every dollar you put in here because these things are notoriously volatile and you know, Whipsaw and there’s all kinds of different, you know crosswinds going on here But the Nugget the nu GT would be kind of a call option or you know for risk capital II say none but the brave for the adventurous you would buy the Nugget because this would give you great upside potential if you are willing to lever up and Understand the risk here understand the risk the risk here is you know basically as Much as you’re gonna buy this thing for it just have to look at it that way It’s the best way to manage the risk and then we come to silver because this really may be the opportunity We haven’t had participation from silver. It’s reflected in the fact that the silver gold silver ratios at a 27 year high, okay Silver’s on the verge of a breakout. It hasn’t performed But that’s okay because this hasn’t been a monetary thing until kind of now So in that case we’re looking at 1555 and then you got 1565 to two year moving average These would be potential breakout pivots and certainly above 1620 that will constitute liftoff for silver which is sitting on the launching pad I mean look at this pattern you have a four year and making you know Multi-touch low below 14 dollars between early 1350 and 14 and a quarter. You could even go back five years coiled and look at the look at the volatility, I mean that’s where it really gets interesting and the volatility of silver is that multi-decade lows in the long-term perspective the historic volatility which suggests claw options could be a strategic Opportunity here as would be the si el the SI l above. 28:19 would be a breakout and From that perspective above 28 night 28:20 will be a long-term breakout with massive Bullish divergence a great technical setup here for the SI l and our final bonus Okay here maybe you know our pick silver miners breaking out against silver really key You want to see the mining shares outperformed the metals in both cases? Haven’t seen that in a long time Alright after a new low that was completely unconcerned Very rare on my trend kind of trend oscillator with the bottom line here is first majestic We picked first majestic as our top pick when we did our 4th quarter 2015 piece actually before this, you know Third leg to the downside and that was the out performer. We see the setup similar. It’s already broken out it’s still in a good risk reward position here at $10 your risk 850 and you have potential upside to $20 or higher the The fr traded in Canada. So gold – guru.com is the new website. We’re debuting Just to try and you know help people take advantage of this really what I see is kind of a you know Once in a 10-year potential opportunity here in the precious metals. That’s it for today. Gregg welded for real vision You You

34 Comments

  1. This is an economic experiment being done by people who live ABOVE what we commonly refer to as the 1% elites

  2. Silver miners exploding in my pants.over the last 3 days, Excellon up 38%, first majestic up 20% , avino up 25%, levon up 25%, great panther up 20%. Couer de leon up 20%.

  3. Who has a good place to buy platinum bars are spot. I hate the fact US platinum coins are $100 over spot. I really hate it.

  4. Great video, I have been following Greg since the last gold and silver bull market that started in 2003, he is one of my favorite market analysts. Thank you for doing this video.

  5. It only took me 43 years to learn that the difference between those that became SUCCESSFUL, and those who didn't, was their ability to HOLD ON and PERSIST in the face of less than desireable, often bleak, circumstances and/or environments. Just. Hold. On.

  6. Gold bugs are like new born Christians bashing and forcing their book on others. Faaark, let people choose, stop ramming your opinions down peoples necks.

  7. Silver is already 16,46. At 100 I might gonna sell. Haha. It might sounds sarcastic but it would be funny to see it happening. I really don't know how low the EUR will sink. We F-ed big time! Going to negative all the way down. The aftermath of 2008.

  8. Thanks for the analysis. I would greatly appreciate more technical analysis. Especially since we are seeing so much movent and the beginning of a large economic collapse.

  9. I thought you were supposed to be a, "Gold Guru?" So, why are you SO obsessed with FIAT currencies – they are worthless and they mean NOTHING – they are all headed back to ZERO! How do you not know this? You must NOT be a "Guru." At least, not of gold. Good luck with your FIAT obsession.

  10. Greg was just as excited about Soybean oil at $30 a couple of years ago..His Fundamental Analysis is good, but the market is Sooo complex and strong conclusions are dangerous.

  11. Just keep buying gold and silver until we can't use anymore those Fiat money . We need silver and gold only .

  12. Debt ceiling was raised meaning more bonds being issued, meaning rates on long term debt will rise as the world chokes on more debt. Long term rates start to rise causing more appetite in the debt market. Gold will drop as this happens.

  13. Who can we belive in on youtube ? Some youtubers are talking about gold to 10.000 $ and silver 1000 $ and others talking about gold to only 2000 $ and silver maybee to 50 $ ! I talk about short time 1-3 year 😉 what do you think ?

  14. Pure 999.9 silver rounds and bars will be more valuable to High Tech firms for industrial uses . Old silver coins need to be melted down and have the copper cleaned out of them for industrial use , they are better for food , real estate , and Bartering ect.

  15. Hi Greg, Over the last three years Gold has gone up 400 US dollars from $1,040 to $1,440.If this was a baseball game it is just the bottom of the second inning, Gold is going to $2,900.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.


*