There is no Gold or Silver shortage admits David Morgan & Chris Marchese

There is no Gold or Silver shortage admits David Morgan & Chris Marchese


Welcome to illuminati Silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Sunday 6th September 2015 and we
are going to show that even The Silver Guru himself and his trusty Lieutenant agree with
us there is no gold or silver shortage. On the 26th August 2015 Under the name of
David Morgan, Mr Chris Marchese – Senior Equity and Economic Analyst for The Morgan Report
and co-author of The Silver Manifesto, wrote his comments about The gold and Silver Shortage
on www.marketoracle.co.uk. We provide a link below this video.
This article could have been written verbatim by us, and we wish we had come across it a
little sooner than now – as we would have used it to support many of the comments we
have made previously. We shall read a few paragraphs for you, without
editing and do let us know if you are surprised by its content.
By Chris Marchese : “A pet peeve of mine is when an article is published talking about
a shortage in silver or gold. Recently, we have seen an increase in articles claiming
that there is a precious metals shortage simply because both the U.S. Mint and Royal Canadian
Mint ran out of blanks. Both Government Mints predetermine a rough amount they will mint
at the start of the year. When demand surges, a “bottleneck” can occur and this has
happened in the past. Why is this such a pet peeve? Because a shortage
in a specific silver product does NOT mean a shortage in the raw material. It would be
like saying there is a rice shortage if Rice Krispies stopped being produced momentarily.
Can there ever be a shortage of silver or gold? Theoretically, if you take the industrial
aspect of silver to the extreme and industrial consumption skyrocketed and consumed total
silver supply (primary supply + secondary supply+ above ground inventory) where primary
supply is worldwide mine production, secondary supply being recycled silver and above ground
inventory which is roughly 2Billion oz., then yes, total silver supply would be consumed.
However, in this thought experiment the probability is that those holding silver for investment
purposes, would be willing to sell silver at astronomical prices as the industrial demand
continued ever stronger. But isn’t that a shortage? Wouldn’t there be pressure on
an industrial user as to how much they would or could pay? In other words what influence
would the market put on these buyers and sellers? It must be pointed out that a vast amount
of industrial products are price inelastic to the price of silver because so little is
used per item. So even if silver were to go up ten or twenty-fold, the amount used is
so small in price relative to the overall sales price of the item, that these industries
would simply pay up to continue their manufacturing schedule. This is true in many electronic
and medical applications. High prices would drastically influence silverware
and jewelry, which would likely see large declines in sales and that of course spills
over into lower demand for silver as a raw material.
Further, let us admit here and now that perhaps some industrial users might stockpile silver
or “hoard” metal. This is stated from experience as Ford Motor “hoarded” palladium
for their assembly line as the price went parabolic.
Remember an increase in consumption of silver would lead to increased secondary supply.
Roughly 20%-25% of silver is recycled. If industrial consumption began to exceed primary
supply as a result of increased demand, it would necessarily increase the market price
of silver as well as increase secondary supply, since it becomes more economical to recycle
silver at $20/oz. than at $15. Taking this further, it is more favorable to recycle silver
at $30/oz. relative to $20/oz. and so on. Furthermore, due to the roughly two billion
troy ounces in above ground inventory, even if Industrial consumption increased substantially,
it could be offset partially or perhaps totally by secondary supply. Additionally, higher
silver prices would allow mines which were previously uneconomic to become economic,
and more silver mining could take place, adding to supply at the very least, under the current
energy dynamics. So even if taken to the extreme, the idea of silver being in a shortage is
a statement that one must consider carefully. In practical terms seeing industrial demand
skyrocket is nearly impossible at least in the current worldwide economic landscape because,
the Greater Depression which began in 2007 has not ended. Since 2007-2008, the debt/GDP
ratios in the major world economies has skyrocketed to dangerous levels such that providing an
environment for real economic growth to occur, would cause the interest payments on debt
to soar. In other words, because central banks do what the government tells them, allowing
the natural rate of interest to prevail is realistically impossible.
Simply stated, industrial consumption skyrocketing at this time isn’t realistic and realistically,
silver and gold are not in a shortage. The definition of shortage at least in this case
is the demand for gold/silver being greater than the supply. But both metals are available
at some price and given the fact the physical market has yet to overtake the paper market
at current metals prices, speaks volumes – at least for now.
So there we have it. One of the most trusted people within the ‘pumpers’ community;
agrees that there is no silver and gold shortage. So when you see vast premiums on Silver Dollars
and Canadian Maples – you know its only a temporary phenomenon.
We hope you have found this video useful and informative. If so, please give it a thumb
up, comment and if you haven’t already done so, please subscribe. Also it would be helpful
if you could share this on twitter and follow us @illuminatisilv1. Disclaimer:
Silver Illuminati owners come from a background of Banking, International Wealth Management
and Economics. Having now retired from these worlds we are not qualified to give investment
advice. Therefore, this and other productions must not be deemed to be giving such advice
and merely represent the personal views of its owners.

51 Comments

  1. Shortage or not silver is on sale at the current price. Silver comes out of the ground at a 10:1 ratio with gold. Silver is extremely undervalued. I'm a heavy buyer of silver..

  2. Let's just say for the sake of argument that there's a 3 percent increase in demand/buyers. The shortage in metals with will come faster than you can say……."Where did they go?" Right now I'm seeing a 2 to 6 week delay, by some, in silver products. Gainesville Coins, APMEX, Provident. Etc. Not all products but the inventory has diminished. Just an observation.

  3. in the sense that a true shortage means that you cannot find any silver, then there is no shortage. I have silver and if someone wants to give me $370 an ounce then it's theirs. But, if they don't have any silver and they can't get it because they won't Meer my price, then they have a shortage unless they can find someone else to buy it from. Not sure why this stupid topic deserves so much discussion.

  4. Recent knowledge acquisition: A shortage in silver will show up in availability of 1000 oz bars; and in gold in availability of 400 oz bars. Otherwise, it's a glitch in the chain of production. Now, a mining supply glitch can take some years to remedy. Similarily, the silver blank refining and cutting machines have a 7-8 month lead time, but must also be foreseen to have long-term use and have available skilled labor. JMB

  5. Illuminati silver I know you can't give investment advice but if you had your choice of commercial real estate or cash what would you rather have right now

  6. Silver Prices are likely to fall even more since it's for the most part looked at as a industrial metal,the mark up is much too high.

  7. silver doesn't have to disappear from the planet in order for the price to go up, copper is a base metal and the price is extremely low right now but the price can triple or more in value and no one thinks anything of it – does this mean copper is scarce? I don't think so. all it takes is a market tightening to send the price of silver to the moon like it did in 2011 I guess we'll find out soon enough

  8. IS..I've heard time and time again that silver is a byproduct of mining other metals. Assuming this is true and with commodities prices crashing, mines will logically shut down or at least mothball lower grades. I've heard of "high grading" where the miners take the "cream" so to speak and sacrifice the rest of the lower grades. I've also heard that mines cannot just be simply turned off and turned on to suit the immediate needs of the markets. These actions by miners have been stated to be at the root of expected shortages. Is there any merit in these comments?

  9. As far as David Morgan goes, I think he's a class act. Surely he is making a living off it, but humbly and honestly as far as I can tell. Tom Cloud also is credible, compared to most, at least realistic, whether right or wrong.

  10. Another excellent video presenting critical information we need to know.  It does not seem like there is any credible argument except "end of the world as we know it insurance" to purchase precious metals at this time.   Is there any realistic scenario short of economic collapse that could unfold in the next decade that would make gold or silver a good "investment"? It seems difficult to imagine.  On what basis can it be said that gold and silver are good buys at these levels?

  11. They keep claiming there is a shortage but the premiums never rise! I agree with you, there is absolutely no silver shortage. Here in China, you can still buy containers of silver coins if you have the money to do so.

  12. If silver goes to $8, then we will see some shortages. There are delays for some rounds and bars…thats just cause people are buying more silver with these low prices. Provident can't keep any of their Provident Prospector one ounce rounds and bars in stock..so as they come in they sell out quick cause they have a low premium….and they have a cool design. I personally want silver to go lower and lower. $8 silver would be really awesome. We are now buying mainly 10 ounce Prospector bars, great price, cool design. We have 7 guys that order together every two weeks, and one of them is selling some farm land and is going to be buying 20,000-30,000 ounces….thats what he told me…yes he's loaded. He will hold some additional money if price drops to around the $10 area. He already has around 2,000 ounces give or take. I said, where the hell you gonna hide that silver….30,000 ounces!!!

  13. what interests me is not the supply side but the demand side of the equation lets look at silver eagles total sales is now well over 450million with current sales moving towards 1million a week I want to know who is buying all these coins how many people do you know who own silver coins I have monitored apmex stock of monster boxes it seems to me that they sell about 2 a day one can only conclude that some very wealthy people or companies are accumulating the majority of these coins do they know something that is not in the public domain and more to the point what are they going to do with these coins surely at some point they will want to exchange them for cash Butler believes that JP Morgan have accumulated 350ml ozs but there is no proof

  14. Thanks for the reply Illuminati silver. are zoning is doing the same thing. Probably too much detail to get into the details of d sale. but thank you for your thoughts.

  15. What is your aim with these videos, ? I see a load of videos to my right telling me silver will go up 100s in fact , are they all wrong.

  16. Thumbs down because I want to hear that silver is going to $100 or more an ounce. I don't want to hear this bullshit reality so I don't like this 😡

  17. Gold is dropping like a lead ballon , just like me and illumanti silver predicted . Guess what, its gonna go even lower.  I will not be surprised to see $1000 gold by years end. Smart money continues to wait till precious metals gets closer to its bottom.

  18. In the end, it doesn't matter how scarce something is, it matters how many people in society want a certain thing, and how much they will pay for it. Right now, gold and silver are " dogs"  that the majority of society could care less about owning. THE TREND IS YOUR FRIEND.

  19. I did find this post interesting, thank you.

    I have a question that you can probably answer easily , and also provide us with references to the relevant data. My question is: To what degree does the cost of production for primary silver suppliers depend on labor and taxes?

    My interest in the answer to this question is to assess the relative exposure of the price of silver to a deflationary economic environment due to a worldwide recession. My sense is that the price of labor and taxes is relatively inelastic in that environment, compared to other important inputs such as the cost of energy and the equipment necessary to run the mines. If labor and taxes are especially important to the cost of silver production, then I would infer that the market price of silver would be less affected by the recession than these other commodities, and less than equities that are not strongly dependent on labor costs (financial institutions and advanced manufacturing like aerospace, media, and the tech sector in general). If so, then silver might be a wise investment in a deflationary environment even if the price declines, so long as the relative purchasing power of trading silver increases compared to other commodities and equities. In essence, more simply stated, that silver (and perhaps gold) would be a safe haven in such an environment compared with the alternatives.

    On the other hand, if labor and taxes are not a major cost factor compared to other industrial inputs, then silver might suffer more intensely than those commodities, which more directly affect the costs of other equities and services. This inference depends of course on my sense that labor and taxes are less elastic than commodities. But I find that hard to believe because labor prices are buoyed by the willingness of (especially western) governments to supply unemployment benefits, and that maintains the necessity of governments to maintain their tax revenues, even at the cost of changing policies (in fact their populations will demand it).

    I hope I’ve stated my question and analysis clearly. Could you please answer the question and comment on the validity of my analysis?

  20. Hi Illuminati S,

    Having an interest in precious metals especially collecting silver coins I find your channel a breath of fresh air however there a couple of observations I'd like to put forward.

    Firstly, there appears no accurate estimate on silver available for swift industrial use above ground that I can see. The usual 1-2 billion oz floated about includes a huge amount of personally held bullion. This is not going to be sold at first in a crisis for industrial shortages because investors/collectors and speculators would wait for prices to sky rocket and dealers would be sold out in no time. The amount of industrial applicational use IS rising and continual deflationary low prices in base metals will have huge production issues in the medium term if not immediately.

    Whilst I understand these 'gurus' help no one with their fabrications they have a very high potential to be correct just on a far longer time frame. The chicken little nonsense doesn't interest me and you might as well be in far less volatile gold for that one-trick pony.

    Secondly, please could you give more credible sources for many of your headline stories or simply make less videos. Quoting the likes of HSBC, Goldman and Barclays etc. who are some of the biggest financial crooks on the planet and who are in perpetual lawsuits with regulators all over the world is hardly believable as a source to back your point of view.

    Thanks.

  21. lol……david morgan a trusted figure……..lol…………never has an expert been so wrong, so often in history

  22. There is a total shortage. Just went to local coin shop where i always buy silver and they said it's a 2.5 month wait. Also went to other dealers an they are all out of silver.

  23. . Try buying an eagle or maple for spot right now or any time soon… Paper analysis to a physical investor is irrelevant. Let's talk about cost of acquisition. .

  24. http://www.apmex.com/category/25255/fractional-less-than-1-oz-silver-rounds http://www.apmex.com/category/24130/1-oz-silver-libertads The squeeze is on

  25. Can we define shortage? I live in California. We are in the middle of one of the worst water shortages. Yet I can turn on my faucet and water still comes out. There is also a big egg shortage. You can still buy eggs at the supermarket though. Both of these are facts and yet I can still easily attain both.

  26. As much as I enjoy your work, I am still very puzzled. With so much conflicting info out there about silver shortage or not, how do you guys know for a fact that there is 2 billion oz of available silver above ground?

  27. Your have NO credibility Illuminati post your photo …..were is your address or office … David has got it wrong and got it right either way his face and office is out there WHO ARE YOU ? WELL WHO ARE YOU ? hiding behind the net you have NO credibility .. silver is pegged to the USD .. what IF it was not ? what if bullion dealers set the price ? what if physical deliverable silver was the ONLY way to but it ????? USD is the pumped up part if this equation .. therefore silver in USD is B.S. .. US debt 17 Trillion is only feign debt internal debt is another 61 Trillion US is a basket case time WILL run out!!!!

  28. I gotta call you on your bullshit…for starters your phony accent rings FALSE…secondly…there is no "silver shortage" …BUT..there IS a mining supply defecit insofar as mines are having difficulty pulling it out of the ground at a PROFIT which they need to do to pay their employees…and thirdly you said that govornments CONTROL central banks…WRONG…banksters run this world NOT the polititians and ANY savvy silver stacker worth his nutsack knows this. Sorry duder but you ring FALSE.

  29. Was an entertaining POV, and a video well done, but this man sounds smarter than he speaks. The concept of a silver shortage is based on the idea that the current high demand cannot continue at the same market price indefinitely. This is not possible. Eventually the markets will be way too stressed to cope with high demand, and the prices for physical will skyrocket. But yes, as for his play on words, the is no ultimate "shortage" in this sense, as there will always be a supply so long as the price is right.

  30. Hi Mr Illuminate please tell me is that book still worth reading in your opinion as I have got it but not read yet?, thanks for the good video

  31. Most the silver mined is the result of byproduct of other metal mining, ie these mines haven't shut down as a result of low silver price, so you might be overestimating the ability of shutdown silver mines being able to meet demand once production is restarted, as they are a minority.

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