Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Thursday 9th August 2018 and this
is the final of a 2-part video highlighting what we believe will be the influences on
the Gold price for the remainder of 2018 and where we predict prices will end up at the
end of the year. Part 1 was published 2 days ago on Tuesday and we strongly recommend that
you listen to it before proceeding with this one.
On Tuesday we stated that at the time of publishing, gold prices stood at $1,212 an ounce, they
currently stand at the same level today, some 4% or $48 down on exactly a year ago and down
some 8% or $100 lower since the start of 2018. In 2018, prices oscillated between about $1,312
and $1,360 per ounce a margin of just 4% compared with 2017 where we saw a price swing from
a low of $1,151 to a high of $1350 a margin of 13% swing and the price of gold actually
rose that year by a very respectable $145 or 12.65%.
We highlighted that there were 6 major influencers on the gold investment market which were:
1. Geopolitical issues 2. Interest rates
3. Price manipulation 4. Internal US Politics.
5. Traditional Supply and Demand. 6. Alternative investment opportunities especially
the equity markets and cryptocurrencies with particular reference to bitcoin. Bearing in
mind that equities gained 20% or more and bitcoin over 100% in the last 12 months.
We concluded the video by asking the questions has gold actually bottomed out in US dollar
terms? Is the only direction from here up? And what is going to happen to gold prices
in 2018? Before we answer those questions lets just
take a brief look at the levels some investment houses, banks and so-called experts in this
area have predicted would be the gold price in 2018.
Jim Rickards Ex-CIA macroeconomic adviser published in his book ‘The New Case For
Gold’ that gold could potentially hit $10,000 this year (in fact he said as early as January
2018) as gold will be necessary as ‘a linchpin of the global economy’ and a new kind of
gold standard would be required as an ‘answer to US dollar stability’. Mmmmm we haven’t
seen that as yet but there is still time we guess.
• Scotiabank has predicted that gold would average $1300 in 2018
• Bank of America Merrill Lynch believes it will rest around $1,326 by the end of the
year • Bank of China International predicts $1400
by year end • Commerzbank $1500 by year end
• The Economy Forecast Agency predicts a 2018 close at $1023
• Jim Sinclair $10,000 by year end • Thomson Reuters have predicted as late
as May this year that Gold will average $1360 an ounce and could potentially touch $1500.
• JP Morgan lowered their forecast in June this year by 4-5% to an average gold price
of $1,355 with similar figures from Goldman Sachs
• Danske Bank forecasts a gold price of $1250 in the fourth quarter of this year
• Commerzbank predicts gold will touch $1,400 by year end.
• Whilst The World bank predicts that both gold and silver prices have already reached
their peak for the year. So with such a diversity of views ranging
from $1,023 – $1500 by serious analysts and a price as high as $10,000 by those needing
to sell books and reports how can anyone give anything like an accurate forecast?
Well, no-one can precisely predict the future however one can make educated assessments
and attempt to factor in various influences which could impact prices.
We are confident that the end of the year will see political turmoil until at least
the US elections are complete. This uncertainty is likely to push gold prices higher and the
outcome will no doubt have an influence in either direction. We are mindful that President
Trump may indeed push for further tax cuts, which if successful would be positive for
equity markets and perhaps negative for gold. However, his tenuous relationship with North
Korea and Iran and with Mueller still to report there is certainly a reasonable chance that
gold prices will be positively affected here. However, we must also consider a possible
rebalancing of Chinese foreign exchange reserves, a rising oil price impact and a potentially
weakening dollar – which is something the President wishes to see to boost exports.
We must also not preclude Central Bank buying which we have not discussed so far, technical
indicators and simple things such as US scientists finding a Spanish galleon laden with treasure
(mainly gold) worth up to $17bn at the bottom of the Caribbean Sea, more than 300 years
after it sank; and new seam discoveries can all have an impact albeit perhaps small. The
Gold Council has also recently announced that inflows into gold-backed ETFs are the lowest
half year investment flows since 2009 – hardly inspiring.
Notwithstanding this it is our assessment that we shall see gold dip below $1200 shortly
and possibly touch as low as $1150 but will end the year somewhere between $1250 and $1300
with gold perhaps potentially peaking at $1400 in between. So, we are somewhat more negative
than many of the serious analysts as we believe there will be further economic growth, tax
cuts and interest rate rises, but also believe that gold prices will bear up well despite
what would traditionally be negative gold price influencers.
So, there we have it. What do you think? We shall be most interested to hear your views?