Why Gold will fall below $1300 by June 2018

Why Gold will fall below $1300 by June 2018


Welcome to illuminati silver, we tell you
the truth about silver. Today is Sunday 6th May 2018 and we are discussing
why we believe gold will fall into $1200 territory very soon.
Since gold peaked above $1900 in 2011 we have seen many pundits, usually gold and silver
sellers, stating that it will rise even further at least to $3,000 then $5,000 then $10,000,
$20,000 and according to Bill Holter even $100,000 an oz.
Well we have always been sceptical since our channel began, and the reasons are simple:
1. Gold has limited Industrial use and therefore is only worth what people perceive it to be
worth. 2. Gold supply and demand is very much in
cinque with one another save a hundred or so tons so why should its price sky rocket?
3. Its not in the interests of world governments or central bankers to see its price rise inexorably
– at least not yet, when so many of them hold so little
4. It yields no income and other assets have been, and may continue to be for some time
yet, more attractive to investors 5. Imminent financial collapse is a myth peddled
by pumpers to increase sales – no serious economist, banker or Investment manager either
privately or publicly believes that the world’s financial system is about to collapse any
time soon, especially after the corrective actions taken since 2008.
Now before we continue, we are not saying all is well and that increasing prosperity
is guaranteed, but we do believe there are still, at the moment, enough checks and balances
in place to keep the world’s economic system running relatively smoothly, in similar fashion
to that which its is today. Now with the abolition of Dodd Frank, a loosening of credit facilities
and a tendency for Governments, even Republican ones, to over spend and increase their national
debt, chickens will eventually come home to roost. So there will be a day when an economic
reset will be necessary, but we believe that will only occur, either when the US National
Debt reaches close to 30 trillion dollars as opposed to the 21 trillion dollars it currently
stands at; and or, a major political error results in serious military conflict between
2 or more major powers. So lets take a brief look as to why we believe
short term gold prices have further to fall. 1. gold is currently languishing at the $1315
level and seems to have been operating in a range of $160 over the past year, $120 over
the past 6 months and $60 over the past 3 months. These ranges becoming increasingly
squeezed with gold today standing above midway between its lowest level in the past 12 months
at $1207 and its highest level at $1364. In recent months we have witnessed political
tension- with the US President consistently under fire; trade sanctions being announced
against China; military threats with North Korea and tit for tat diplomat expulsions
between Russia and a number of developed economic western powers. In addition, a hard line approach
against Iran has been operating in the background together with the recent air attacks in Syria
as a reprisal for alleged use of chemical weapons by Assad. Against all of this uncertainty,
gold has only just managed in the last 3 months to vacillate within $60 an ounce.
As we stand today, many of these tensions have waned, and an improving economic picture
with lower US unemployment, higher GDP growth and a relaxation of tensions will only serve
to reduce the ‘fear factor premium’ normally seen in gold prices, during periods of tension
and uncertainty. 2. Generally precious metal prices rise in
the first few months of the year, only to fall back again towards June, July and August
and we are shortly about to enter that period. 3. Published on the 3rd May 2018, only 3 days
ago, the World Council announced that Gold demand for the first quarter of this year
of 973.5t was the lowest Q1 since 2008. The main cause was a fall in investment demand
for gold bars and gold-backed ETFs, partly due to range-bound gold prices.
Jewellery demand was steady at 487.7t, as growth in China and the US compensated for
weaker Indian demand. Central banks bought 116.5t of gold (+42% y-o-y). Technology demand
extended its recent upward trend, growing 4% y-o-y to 82.1t. The total supply of gold
increased by 3% primarily due to a modest increase in producer hedging. Mine production
was fractionally higher at 770t. Hardly an environment to get too excited about
with the expectation of imminent rising prices. Its simply unlikely to happen with these figures
persisting. 4. The FED is expected to raise Interest rates
in June and possibly twice more later in the year. We are already witnessing a strengthening
of the US dollar, both of which are likely to cause precious metal prices, and especially
gold to fall further. 5. The most recent Gold COT Reports,– Commitment
of Traders Reports published Friday show that Cot Futures Short contracts outweigh longs
by 480,000 compared to 455,000 and combined futures and options show again shorts dominating
with 684,000 contracts vs 657,000. Now whilst these are not definitive, they do show quite
a good indication of trends and the previous week’s report shows a similar pattern. Therefore,
professional investors are expecting lower prices.
Now, you don’t have to take just our word for it.
Phillip Streible Senior Market Strategist, RJO Futures said on Kitco News on Friday 4th
May, “In June, [the Fed] should raise rates again.
That’ll probably be another catalyst to put the pressure on. I think for longer-term
traders, if you look at the ADX, which measure the strength of the downward trend, it’s
at 40, which is a considerably strong downward trending market.”
He also added: “The dollar index has been really weighing
on gold, and the dollar broke out from a small consolidation range, and it looks like we
can target some of those previous highs of 95 on the dollar ….. The last time it was
at that level was last November and gold prices were down at $1,275, so if the dollar continues
to rally, I think that’s what’s going to weigh in on gold.”
Frank Holmes CEO, U.S. Global Investors also told Kitco News: that Gold is unlikely to
see any upward movement until the second half of the year
“The U.S. dollar just looks more attractive. The issue is going to come in the second half
of the year when we start dealing with higher interest charges and this monetary supply
still so great.” Interestingly, The LBMA, (London Bullion Market
Association) a standards setting body for the industry, says the 34 analysts polled
are divided on the paths that precious metal prices will take in 2018:
“Opinions differ as to the level of US real interest rates, the likely impact of geopolitical
factors and the pace of global economic growth. Our contributors are divided as to what will
have the greater impact and hence we have received forecasts for gold as high as $1,510
and as low as $1,120 and it’s a similar story for the other metals.”
Last year’s winner Bart Melek of TD Securities who came within a dollar of 2017’s average
gold price ($1,257) forecasts a high for gold of $1,433, and a dip to just below $1,200
and an average for the year of $1,313 close to its current level.
The winner of the 2015 competition, Bernard Dahdah of French investment bank Natixis,
is a notable bear and predicts gold to fall as low as $1,120 and an average $90 an ounce
below current prices. Robin Bhar of Société Générale is the most pessimistic about bullion’s
average value in 2018 – $1,215. Ross Norman of Sharps Pixley, London’s top
bullion broker, forecasts a tight range for gold; $1,260 on the downside, a $1,400 high
and a $1,358 average. Norman has been the most accurate forecaster in recent years coming
in as the outright winner five times and a runner up four times.
So there we have it. Not one serious forecaster is predicting gold above $1510 or below $1,120
– considerably less than the $3000 or $5000 an oz we often see on the ‘Fake News Pumper
channels. Our view is that gold will fall into $1200 territory very soon and almost
certainly before the end of June unless of course some erroneous black swan should happen
to swim into our channel. We hope you have found this video interesting
and informative and if so, please give it a thumb up and share it on twitter. Also kindly
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Disclaimer: Illuminati Silver owners come from a background
of Banking, International Wealth Management and Economics. Having now retired from these
worlds we are not qualified to give investment advice. Therefore, this and other productions
must not be deemed to be giving such advice and merely represent the personal views of
its owners.

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